EURCHF: Nomura Target EURCHF 0.9750

Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reporting on X that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) "just reiterated he is in favor of Congress putting new sanctions on Russia." As the package has overwhelming support in the Senate, Johnson's approval would release the bill for consideration on the House floor, likely setting up passage to President Donald Trump's desk. 

• The Russia sanctions bill, introduced by Senators Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would impose punitive sanctions if Moscow refuses to negotiate with Ukraine, including a 500% secondary tariff on goods imported from countries that buy Russian oil and gas.
• Trump told reporters yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is, "very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." Trump said of Graham’s sanctions bill: “...it’s totally at my option and I’m looking at it strongly”.
• Graham said that Trump told him “it’s time to move so we’re going to move,” on sanctions. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said he’ll make an announcement soon on when the Senate will take up the bill.
• The bill is unlikely to hit the Senate this week but could come before the chamber ahead of the August recess, if an agreement is struck with the White House on language clarifying Trump's discretion on deploying sanctions and tariffs.
• The primary concern for the White House is likely how to calibrate secondary tariffs without increasing tensions with China and India – the two biggest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons.

• Treasury futures are holding at midday highs (TYU5 +9.5 at 111-02.5) ahead of the $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CNC1) at the top of the hour, WI currently 4.367%, 5.4bp cheap to last month's stop.
• June auction recap: Treasury futures add slightly to gains (TYU5 +13.5 at 110-20, 4.4203% yld) after the $39B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CNC1) stopped .9bp through: drawing 4.421% high yield vs. 4.430% WI; 2.52x bid-to-cover vs. 2.60x prior.
• Peripheral stats: indirect take-up retreated to 70.56% vs. 71.19% prior; direct bidder take-up at 20.48% from 19.88% prior; primary dealer take-up 8.96% vs. 8.93% prior.
• The next 10Y auction (open) is tentatively scheduled for August 6.

• RES 4: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg 
• RES 3: 112-23   High May 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 112-12+/15 High Jul 1 / 61.8% of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 1: 111-06/111-28 20-day EMA / High Jul 3  
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-01 @ 16:59 BST Jul 09
• SUP 1: 110-17   61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg       
• SUP 2: 110-10+ Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 110-03   76.4% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11 

Treasury futures maintain a softer short-term tone following the retracement that started Jul 1. Price has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-30+. This undermines a recent bull theme and paves the way for an extension lower near-term. Sights are on 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break would strengthen a bearish threat. Resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.