SCANDIS: NOKSEK Testing Initial Support; Heavy Norway Calendar Next Week
NOKSEK is testing initial support at 0.9327 (August 19 low), now down 0.5% on the session. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme, with moving average studies also currently in a bear-mode position. Key support is defined at 0.9295 (August 11 low).
- While SEK has been a beneficiary of broad-based USD weakness since the labour market report was released, NOK has been held back by renewed downside in Brent Crude futures.
- Bloomberg have reported that Saudi Arabia wants to consider reviving another tranche of 1.66m b/d of halted supplies at Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.
- While crude has been an important driver of NOK FX this week, domestic developments will become more prominent next week. Alongside the General Election on Monday (which is not expected to be a major market mover), we also see August inflation (Wednesday) and the Q3 Regional Network Survey (Thursday). The latter two will be key inputs into Norges Bank’s September MPR rate path. EURNOK 1-week ATM implied vols are currently at their highest since the end of June.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Expanded List
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/06 $Benchmark BMW US 2Y +80a, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +105a, 10Y +125a
- 08/06 $Benchmark Oneok 7Y +130a, 10Y +140a, 30Y +175a
- 08/06 $700M Match Group 8NC3
- 08/06 $500M PPL Electric WNG 30Y +105
- 08/06 $Benchmark Extra Space Storage +7Y +130a
- 08/06 $Benchmark American Water Capital 30Y +120a
- 08/06 $Benchmark PetSmart 7NC3, 8NC3 investor calls
SOFR OPTIONS: Morning Update: Continued Call Buying, Underlying Pares Losses
Underlying SOFR futures paring losses, White pack mostly steady now. In turn, projected rate cut pricing gaining vs. morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -23.4bp (-22.6bp), Oct'25 at -38.9bp (-38.4bp), Dec'25 at -58.8bp (-58.3bp), Jan'26 at -70.4bp (-68.9bp).
- +3,000 SFRV5 96.31/96.43/96.50 broken call flys, 2.62 ref 96.255
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.25 call spds, 1.25 ref 95.935
- -2,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.68 strangles, 11.5 ref 96.25
- +4,000 SFRX5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors .25 over SFRZ5 95.62/95.857 put spd
- Update, over +10,000 SFRZ5 96.56/96.68/96.75 1x3x2 broken call flys, 0.5
TARIFFS: Trump to Impose Additional 25% Tariff on India
President Donald Trump has signed an Executive Order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil. Full White House statement here.
- USDINR 1-month NDFs spike higher on the headlines, but remain below the overnight highs for now.
