SCANDIS: NOKSEK Recovery Keeps Uptrend Intact
May-16 10:21
NOKSEK has recovered strongly today, currently up 0.55% and hovering around the 0.9400 handle. The recovery bolsters the view that yesterday’s pullback was corrective in nature. The cross continues to trade above the trendline drawn from the April 9 low, which should help underpin price action in the short-term.
- We haven’t seen an obvious driver of today’s SEK weakness against the broader G10 basket, particularly given the 0.7% rally in European equity futures. Riksbank Governor Thedeen reaffirmed his cautious stance on current monetary policy in comments this morning.
- Rate differentials are working in favour of NOKSEK upside intraday, with 2-year SEK swap rates down 3.5bps and NOK rates little changed. However, we stress that relative rates have not been a reliable driver of NOKSEK performance in the medium-term, with the cross more sensitive to swings in Brent crude prices.
- Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim participates in a panel discussion with ECB's Lane and BOE's Lombardelli on "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 1600BST/1700CET. Seim struck a cautious tone in Wednesday's May meeting minutes, alongside Thedeen and Jansson.
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EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/12-month EU-bills
Apr-16 10:10
| Type | 3-month EU-bill | 6-month EU-bill | 12-month EU-bill |
| Maturity | Jul 4, 2025 | Oct 3, 2025 | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.092bln | E1.062bln | E797mln |
| Target | E1.5bln | E1.5bln | E1.0bln |
| Previous | E1.369bln | E1.228bln | E1.326bln |
| Avg yield | 2.158% | 2.117% | 1.956% |
| Previous | 2.254% | 2.220% | 2.141% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.72x | 1.69x | 2.54x |
| Previous | 1.35x | 1.42x | 2.28x |
| Previous date | Apr 02, 2025 | Apr 02, 2025 | Apr 02, 2025 |
EGB SYNDICATION: Italy 7-year BTP / 30-year BTPei: Final terms
Apr-16 10:09
7-year BTP:
- Size: E8bln (MNI expected E7-13bln)
- Spread set earlier at 3.15% Nov-31 BTP +13bps (guidance was +14bps area)
- Books closed in excess of E50bln (inc E5.55bln JLM interest)
- Maturity: 15 July 2032
- ISIN: IT0005647265
- Coupon: Short first on 15 July 2025
30-year BTPei:
- Spread set earlier at 0.15% May-51 BTPei RY +36bps (guidance was +38bps area)
- Size: E3bln WNG
- Books closed in excess of E53bln (inc E3.1bln JLM interest)
- Maturity: 15 July 2032
- ISIN: IT0005647273
- Coupon: First full on 15 May
For both:
- Settlement: 25 April 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BBVA / BofA / GSBE SE / JPM (DM/B&D) / Natixis / Societe Generale
- Timing: Books closed, Allocation and pricing to follow
From market source / MNI colour
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Resistance In S&P E-Minis
Apr-16 10:01
- In the equity space, a reversal in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5498.03, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5701.85. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would resume the M/T downtrend. Initial support to watch is 5098.16, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and if this is correct, marks an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 4998.90, the 20-day EMA, and 5131.98, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support is seen at 4664.00, the Apr 10 low.
