SCANDIS: NOKSEK Holds Above Support Following Early Scandi Data

That upside surprise of 0.4ppt to consensus for CPI-ATE leaves us 0.2ppt above the Norges Bank's latest forecast.

• Initial reaction has seen EURNOK move from around 11.723 pre-data to hit a low of 11.707.
• We had noted following last week's Norges Bank meeting that a December cut seemed very unlikely at this stage, and the prospects of that are likely to fall back even further.
• It appears as though the upside pressure is concentrated across "furnishings, household equipment and route maintenance", "clothing and footwear" and "recreation and culture" at first glance.

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.02 @ Close Nov 7
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.60 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Fitch affirmed Ireland at AA; Outlook Stable
• Fitch affirmed Latvia at A-; Outlook Stable
• S&P affirmed Poland at A-; Outlook Stable
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Poland at A, Trend changed to Negative
• Scope Ratings affirmed Greece at BBB; Outlook revised to Positive