SCANDIS: NOKSEK Approaching Important Long-Term Support Zone
While longer-term FX charts don't chime too well with real-time coverage, the NOKSEK quarterly candle chart is compelling at these levels as the price is approaching an important pivot zone. Although near-term risks may still be tilted to the downside, the bar to a sustained move below the 0.9000 figure could be high.
- The importance of the 0.9000 figure may be more psychological than fundamental. Previous tests of this level came before both currencies entered a floating regime.
- One factor that may provide a floor to NOK is oil prices. Although there are acute concerns that a large surplus will weigh on oil prices next year, tacit understanding that there is an “OPEC put” at some level may limit scope for significant weakness. With the petroleum sector still contributing 25% of Norway’s total GDP, a floor in crude may translate into a floor in NOKSEK.
Figure 1: NOKSEK Since 1975 (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov11 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- AUD/USD: $0.6450(A$644mln)
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Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Nov12 $1.1500-05(E1.1bln), $1.1688-90(E1.3bln); Nov13 $1.1590(E1.5bln)
- USD/JPY: Nov13 Y147.00($1.6bln), Y152.96-00($1.1bln), Y155.00($1.1bln)
- GBP/USD: Nov12 $1.3100(Gbp1.9bln), $1.3225-30(Gbp1.3bln)
- AUD/USD: Nov12 $0.6500(A$1.2bln), $0.6530-50(A$1.2bln); Nov14 $0.6750(A$2.2bln)
- USD/CAD: Nov14 C$1.4025-35($1.2bln)
EU: Commission Avoids MEP Rebellion On Long-Term Budget, For Now
Following a meeting earlier today between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, and Danish PM Mette Frederiksen (in her role as chair of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union), the EP leadership have called off plans for a vote on a resolution to oppose the Commission's proposal for the EUR1.8 trillion 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF, the EU's long-term budget). The Commission initially proposed legal changes to the MFF plans on Sunday, 9 November. As Politico reports, these included "a “rural target” that would compel governments to spend 10 percent of the total amounts of the national plans on agriculture. This is in addition to the €300 billion in direct funding for farmers already included in the original proposal in July."
- Euractiv reports that the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), liberal Renew Europe, and environmentalist Greens/EFA have signalled their backing for the proposed changes, albeit with further requests to add. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) may prove more circumspect, with one S&D MEP claiming the changes are only "cosmetic", but the group is yet to put forward an official position.
- The Commission has said it does not plan to make any formal changes to its proposal ahead of submission, meaning that the amendments will have to be approved by member states at the Council level.
FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: Jan'26 FF Sale
- -21,000 FFF6 96.295, post time bid at 0951:22ET.
- The Jan'26 serial contract trades 96.295 last (-0.010)
