CZK: No Surprises From Governor Michl So Far, CZK Little Changed
Nov-06 14:15
* Despite the downward adjustments to the Bank's CPI forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, we noted in...
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EQUITY OPTIONS: Estoxx Put Seller
Oct-07 14:13
SX5E (19th Dec) 5400p, sold at 80.5 and 80.4 in 10.1k.
GILTS: Off Lows Alongside Bunds
Oct-07 14:02
Gilts rally from session lows alongside a similar move in Bunds, with support in the German benchmark holding.
- Gilt futures based at 90.34, ahead of initial support at 90.26.
- Yields 1-2bp higher on the day, Initial resistance points intact across the curve.
- 10s last ~4.75%, comfortably within the 4.60-4.80% multi-week closing range.
- International political developments and cross-market moves have provided the major inputs for gilt markets early this week.
- UK fiscal risks continue to point towards the potential for further curve steepening, particularly with 2s10s and 5s30s back from recent highs.
- BoE-dated OIS still shows ~5bp of easing through year-end, which we believe underestimates the odds of a rate cut in Q4.
- SONIA futures flat to -2.5, cycle lows in SFIZ5 & Z6 remain untouched.
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill are due Wednesday, along with a GBP5bln sale of the new 4.00% May-29 gilt.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Nov-25 | 3.961 | -0.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.919 | -4.8 |
Feb-26 | 3.814 | -15.3 |
Mar-26 | 3.785 | -18.2 |
Apr-26 | 3.711 | -25.7 |
Jun-26 | 3.687 | -28.0 |
Jul-26 | 3.639 | -32.8 |
Sep-26 | 3.631 | -33.7 |
MNI: CANADA SEP IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 59.8 SA
Oct-07 14:00
- CANADA SEP IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 59.8 SA
