US DATA: No Real Surprises In Preliminary U.Mich Survey For October

The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for October was broadly as expected, with consumer sentiment holding steady and revealing little impact from the federal government shutdown whilst inflation expectations were also little changed. 

• U.Mich consumer sentiment was mildly stronger than expected as it held “virtually unchanged” at 55.0 (cons 54.0) in the preliminary October release after 55.1 in September.
• “Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables.”
• The inflation expectations metrics were close to consensus estimates but are prone to revisions come the final release which appears related to sensitivity to when those of differing political affiliation submit their results.  
• 1Y inflation expectations: 4.6% (cons 4.7) after 4.7% in September.
• 5-10Y inflation expectations: 3.7% (cons 3.7) after 3.7% in September.
• The press release notes that “Inflation expectations for both time horizons are about midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in April and May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes.”
• More broadly, note that “interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.”
• Note also that the 603 responses for this preliminary survey is higher than some recent months (for preliminary surveys) but it could be double this come the full release.