OIL PRODUCTS: No Need to Import Fuel to Russia: Novak

Varied SOFR & Treasury options on decent overnight volumes - leaning towards puts in the lead up to this afternoon's FOMC policy annc. Underlying futures mixed, curves flatter with Bonds outperforming. Projected rate cut pricing gains slightly vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Sep'25 at -27.1bp (-26.1bp), Oct'25 at -46.4bp (-46bp), Dec'25 at -69.1bp (-68.4bp), Jan'26 at -82.9bp (-82.5bp).

• SOFR Options
  • +10,000 SFRZ5 95.81/95.93/96.06 put flys, 0.75
  • +2,000 SFRV5 96.37/96.50/96.62 call flys, 2.25
  • Block, 5,000 2QX5 97.12/97.37/97.50 broken call flys, 4.75 net/splits
  • +3,500 SFRF6 96.00/96.31/96.50 broken put flys, 2.75
  • +4,000 SFRX5 96.00/96.06/96.12/96.18 put condors, 1.0
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 96.43/96.56 1x2 call spds ref 96.36
  • 1,800 0QX5 97.37/97.62/97.75 broken call flys ref 97.105
  • over 6,300 SFRX5 96.18 puts ref 96.36
  • 3,500 SFRF6 96.00/96.3196.50 broken put flys ref 96.615
  • -4,200 0QV5 96.81 straddles, 31.0 ref 97.105
  • +3,000 SFRZ5 95.93/96.06/96.18 put flys, 1.5
  • +3,000 SFRZ5 95.93/96.06/96.18 2x3x1 put flys, 0.5 ref 96.355
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 96.75/97.00 call spds, 1.25 ref 96.355
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 96.25 puts, 6.5
  • -3,500 0QV5 96.93 puts, 3.5
• Treasury Options:
  • -2,000 wk1 TY 113.25 puts, 25 vs 113-18.5/0.40%
  • +2,000 TYV5 112.5 puts, 5 vs. 113-16.5/0.10%
  • +6,500 FVV5 109.5 puts, 7
  • +5,000 TYV5 113 puts, 11
  • 3,000 wk3 US 119 calls, 9
  • over 6,000 TYV5 112.5 puts, 5 last ref 113-19.5
  • +2,000 wk3 FV 109.5 puts, 3.5
  • +3,500 TYV5 114.25 calls, 9
  • +4,000 TYX5 112.5 puts, 21
  • +2,000 TYV5 114/114.5 call spds 7 vs. 113-16/0.16%
  • over 6,500 wk3 TY 113 puts, 4 ref 113-19 to -19.5 (exp 9/19)

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.39% (-0.12), volume: $2.857T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.36% (-0.14), volume: $1.139T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.36% (-0.14), volume: $1.115T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

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• President Donald Trump’s State Visit to the United Kingdom kicked off today. Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are expected to unveil a raft of tech investment pledges, a nuclear deal, and hammer out details of the May trade framework agreement.
• Trump’s top economic advisor, Stephen Miran, was formally sworn in as a governor on the Federal Reserve board, capping a lightning-fast Senate confirmation process that ensures Miran’s position will be recorded in today's interest rate decision.
• The US and China are reportedly in the final stages of negotiations for Trump to attend a state visit to Beijing.
• Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi touted their personal relationship as Washington and New Delhi look to defuse a trade standoff.
• The House of Representatives approved a measure that cedes more tariff authority to Trump.
• The USTR initiated the public consultation process in advance of a joint review of the USMCA.
• Democratic leaders rejected a Republican CR to avert a government shutdown on October 1.
• Trump told reporters the US military “knocked off” a third Venezuelan boat allegedly involved in narcotics smuggling.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will hold a call with his European counterparts today, in an attempt to head off UN sanctions.
• Poll of the Day: 80% of US adults believe the government should prioritise AI safety over developing capabilities. 

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF