US: Ninth Senate Vote On Government Funding Bill Underway Shortly
Oct-15 18:16
The US Senate is shortly due to vote for a ninth time on the House-passed funding bill to reopen the US government. The bill is expected to fail again, with no sign of Republican or Democratic leadership engaged in discussions on an offramp to the government shutdown. LIVESTREAM
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has signalled he will pursue a new strategy to ramp up pressure on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). On Thursday, he will hold a procedural vote on the House-passed defence appropriations bill, with a view to opening conference negotiations with the lower chamber on a three-bill ‘minibus’ package.
- Thune told reporters, "We'll see if we can get on it, and then we'll see if there's an appetite for adding some other bills to it, like we did in the other mini package. So that's the plan."
- Thune hopes that by challenging Senate Democrats to vote on appropriations bills, he can reduce the rationale for keeping the government shut down. Thune likely believes that it would reflect poorly on Democrats if they block spending bills via regular appropriations.
- Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) said, “If we can show that we can move the appropriations bills, there’s absolutely no justification or rationale for a government shutdown.”
- Burgess Everett at Semafor reported earlier that Senate Democrat whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) said: "It came to a surprise to us ... I don't know that any plan has been announced.”
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OPTIONS: Dovish Lean To Euribor Rate Structures Monday
Sep-15 18:07
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- ERX5 98.00/98.0625/98.125/98.1875 call condor, paper pays 1 for 18k
- ERH6/ERM6 97.5625 put calendar spread, paper pays 0.75 for 3k all day
- ERM6 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 2.25 in 5k
- ERM6 98.375/98.25/97.9375p ladder, sold at 5.5 in 2.8k.
CANADA: USDCAD Clears Support With Canada FM Eyeing Generational Investment
Sep-15 17:54
- Canada's finance minister said his budget next month needs to provide a "generational investment" to fend off damage from the U.S. trade war, while declining to comment on a newspaper report the deficit will grow to CAD100 billion from a campaign pledge of just over CAD60 billion.
- Francois Philippe Champagne told reporters Monday the government will also aim to curb spending in other areas to free up room for longer-term projects, without providing details. MNI previously reported the government set up a power to borrow an extra CAD95 billion to deal with the trade war.
- There is little reaction in GoC yields, with a ~0.5bp lift away from session lows for 2s and 10s, but USDCAD sees a clearer step lower to session lows of 1.3780.
- It clears support in doing so, seen at 1.3790 (50-day EMA), and opens 1.3727 (Aug 27 low) if the clearance is held.
- CAD is one of the top performers on the day, aided by the strong equity backdrop with fresh all-time highs seen in US indices.
US: Approval For Congressional Republicans Outstrips Democrats But Gap Tightens
Sep-15 17:54
A new Fox News survey has found that, “Congressional Republicans’ approval rating outperformed their Democratic counterparts for the second time this year.”
- Fox notes, “Thirty-three percent of registered voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing (66% disapprove), up 3 points from a near record-low 30% in March. While their Republican colleagues garner a higher 38% approval rating (61% disapproval), that’s down 5 points from a record-high 43% six months ago.”
- According to Fox, “The decline in congressional Republican approval comes from within: 76% of self-identified GOPers approve, but that’s down from 88% in March. And while congressional Democrats earn the approval from just 58% of self-identified Democrats, that’s up from 49% six months ago.”
- The survey notes that President Donald Trump’s highest approval ratings are on his handling of border security (57% approve), followed by crime and public safety (50%) and immigration (47%). Fewer approve on Ukraine (40%), the economy (39%), Russia (36%), tariffs (36%) and cost of living (32%).
Figure 1: Congressional Job Approval by Party
Source: Fox News
