US: Ninth Senate Vote On Government Funding Bill Underway Shortly

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• ERX5 98.00/98.0625/98.125/98.1875 call condor, paper pays 1 for 18k
• ERH6/ERM6 97.5625 put calendar spread, paper pays 0.75 for 3k all day
• ERM6 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 2.25 in 5k
• ERM6 98.375/98.25/97.9375p ladder, sold at 5.5 in 2.8k.
   

• Canada's finance minister said his budget next month needs to provide a "generational investment" to fend off damage from the U.S. trade war, while declining to comment on a newspaper report the deficit will grow to CAD100 billion from a campaign pledge of just over CAD60 billion.
• Francois Philippe Champagne told reporters Monday the government will also aim to curb spending in other areas to free up room for longer-term projects, without providing details. MNI previously reported the government set up a power to borrow an extra CAD95 billion to deal with the trade war.
• There is little reaction in GoC yields, with a ~0.5bp lift away from session lows for 2s and 10s, but USDCAD sees a clearer step lower to session lows of 1.3780.
• It clears support in doing so, seen at 1.3790 (50-day EMA), and opens 1.3727 (Aug 27 low) if the clearance is held.
• CAD is one of the top performers on the day, aided by the strong equity backdrop with fresh all-time highs seen in US indices.  

A new Fox News survey has found that, “Congressional Republicans’ approval rating outperformed their Democratic counterparts for the second time this year.”

• Fox notes, “Thirty-three percent of registered voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing (66% disapprove), up 3 points from a near record-low 30% in March. While their Republican colleagues garner a higher 38% approval rating (61% disapproval), that’s down 5 points from a record-high 43% six months ago.”
• According to Fox, “The decline in congressional Republican approval comes from within: 76% of self-identified GOPers approve, but that’s down from 88% in March. And while congressional Democrats earn the approval from just 58% of self-identified Democrats, that’s up from 49% six months ago.”
• The survey notes that President Donald Trump’s highest approval ratings are on his handling of border security (57% approve), followed by crime and public safety (50%) and immigration (47%). Fewer approve on Ukraine (40%), the economy (39%), Russia (36%), tariffs (36%) and cost of living (32%).

Figure 1: Congressional Job Approval by Party

Source: Fox News