OIL: Nigeria Oil Union Agrees to Start Process of Calling Off Strike

• The Dollar is in the red going into the Week, the {r1} EUR is the best performer and might be taking its cue from the slight push higher in Yields.
• There was a gap Higher in the Estoxx, after a US Court ruled that Trump Global Tariffs were illegal, but the bid in Risk was short lived, Estoxx (VGU5) is now closer to flat.
• Next resistance in the EUR is at 1.1743 High Aug 22.
• Immediate chart to watch is the USDSEK and the 2025 low at 9.3792 (prices are according to Bloomberg), this was also its lowest print since April 2022.

J.P.Morgan recommended receiving Oct ’25 ECB-dated OIS late on Friday.

• They note that ECB rhetoric embeds some tolerance for inflation prints undershooting the 2% target, although caution that the bar for an October rate cut is high and will likely require further weakening in both growth and inflation data.
• Ultimately, they believe that the ~3bp of easing currently priced through October is “too low”, especially as they think that the ECB will not fully shut the door to an October cut at its September meeting. 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6590.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 6463.00 @ 07:21 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 6439.95/6362.75 20-day EMA / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6332.47 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

S&P E-Minis bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6543.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6332.47, the 50-day EMA. The latest pullback appears corrective.