EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Nigeria: IMF’s Art IV Consultation ended, neutral
(NGERIA; B3/B-/B)
• With spreads already near the local lows, neutral read from the latest IMF press release, announcing completion of the Art IV Consultation with Nigeria by its Executive Board.
• Key highlights mentioned include “macroeconomic stability and enhanced resilience”. We take comfort from the Fund’s projections for real GDP growth at 3.4 for FY25 and 3.2 for FY26, also considering assumption on production of crude oil at 1.7MMb/d.
• In terms of debt profile, we note a decline of public gross debt as a % of GDP from a peak in FY24 at 52.9% to projected FY26 at 50.8%, with h-ccy component stable at approx. 50% of total.
• In secondary, our screen feeds show NGERIA 10.375 Dec34s charting at the local lows z+576bp, approx. 9.50% area (source: MNI, Bloomberg Finance L.P.).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: Fresh Phase of USD Sales Put EUR, JPY Toward Key Breakout Levels
- EUR/USD pressuring intraday highs on the back of the ISM manufacturing print - the dip in the 10y yield helping aid the move lower in USD across the board, but only EUR/USD and USD/JPY are testing session highs/lows.
- Clearance of 1.1438 puts the pair at the highest since mid-April, narrowing the gap with the 1.1573 bull trigger. For USD/JPY, support has broken at typing, with the pair inside ~40 pips of 142.12 key support.
US TSYS: Stagflatonary ISM Narrative Limits Post-Data Reaction
A softer-than-expected headline ISM manufacturing survey provides a very light bid, although the underlying stagflationary narrative remains intact with a prices paid component remaining above 69.0 limiting the rally.
- TYU5 adds 0-05+ to 110-24+ following the data before fading back to 110-20+.
- The contract remains within the pre-existing session range (110-18/30).
- Initial support and resistance located at 109-26 & 110-30, respectively. Recent gains still appear corrective at this stage.
- Yields 2.0-3.5bp higher on the day, light bear steepening theme on the curve.
MNI: US APR CONSTRUCT SPENDING -0.4%
- MNI: US APR CONSTRUCT SPENDING -0.4%
- US APR PRIVATE CONSTRUCT SPENDING -0.7%
- US APR PUBLIC CONSTRUCT SPENDING +0.4%
