OIL PRODUCTS: Nigeria Ends Plans for Fuel Import Duty

• Reoffer: 2.884% / 98.906%
• Size: E1bln WNG (We had pencilled in a E1.0-1.5bln range for this week's ESM transaction, but leant towards a E1.25bln size rather than the E1bln WNG announced. Following today's sale, total ESM funding for the year will be broadly in line with the E7bln annual target)
• Books in excess of E18.5bln (exc. JLM interest)
• Final terms set earlier: MS + 31bps (Guidance was MS +34bps area)
• Hedge ratio: 98% vs 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (DE000BU2Z049) + 32.6bps (Spot ref: 99.511)
• Settlement: Oct. 21, 2025 (T+5)
• ISIN: EU000A1Z99W5
• Bookrunners: HSBC, MS (B&D), Natixis
• Timing: TOE 12:11BST / 13:11CET. FTT 12:30BST / 13:30CET

Source: Market sources / MNI colour.

• In the FI space, Bund futures have rallied today. This week’s early gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high and a key short-term resistance. The break strengthens a bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher with sights in 130.05 next, a 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg. Note that moving average studies are crossing into a bull-mode position, a bullish signal. Important support lies at 128.67, the 50-day EMA. First support is at 129.13, the Oct 10 low.
• Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. Today’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price has cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens the 92.00 handle, and 92.37, the Aug 11 high (cont). Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.

XBT (11th Dec) 135k/145k/155k c fly, bought for 600 in 200.