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The key event in NZ this week is the Q3 labour market and wages data released on Wednesday. Filled jobs for the quarter signal a stabilization but employment is likely to have remained weak with consensus forecasting it to rise only 0.1% q/q to be still down 0.2% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to rise 0.1pp to 5.3%, in line with the RBNZ’s August projections. Soft labour demand is likely to weigh on private wage growth which is forecast to rise around 0.4% q/q after 0.6%.

• The RBNZ’s biannual financial stability report is also published on Wednesday. It is likely to be concerning if it shows an increase in mortgage arrears despite recent easing.
• In terms of housing data, October Cotality home values and September building permits are released Monday. The construction sector has lagged the rest of the economy but the ANZ business survey is showing some recovery.
• October ANZ commodity prices are released on Wednesday. They fell 1.1% m/m in September.

• RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
• RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
• PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3  
• SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14 
• SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support

Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg. 

• RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
• RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
• RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
• SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
• SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24

Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.