COMMODITIES: Next Resistance for Gold at $4536.00, a Fibonacci Projection

• EUR/USD: Nov25 $1.1625(E1.4bln); Nov26 $1.1525(E1.0bln), $1.1595-00(E1.7bln); Nov27 $1.1575(E1.3bln)
• USD/JPY: Nov26 Y154.00($1.9bln), Y155.00($1.8bln)
• AUD/USD: Nov26 $0.6535(A$1.7bln)
• NZD/USD: Nov26 $0.5670-75(N$1.2bln)
• USD/CNY: Nov26 Cny7.00($1.2bln)

The move down last week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction. The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The recovery since Oct 28 does suggest that correction is over. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3952.9. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.

• WTI Crude down $0.54 or -0.93% at $57.5
• Natural Gas down $0.04 or -0.83% at $4.542
• Gold spot up $11.14 or +0.27% at $4073.84
• Copper down $2.4 or -0.47% at $507.25
• Silver up $0.29 or +0.57% at $50.2912
• Platinum up $6.53 or +0.43% at $1527.74

Last week’s sell-off in Eurostoxx 50 futures highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5597.64, the 50-day EMA, and 5626.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5427.01, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5633.27, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and weakness last week reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 6540.25 (pierced), the Oct 10 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 6476.62, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6735.63, the 20-day EMA.

• In China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 1.874 pts or +0.05% at 3836.765 and the HANG SENG ended 496.48 pts higher or +1.97% at 25716.5.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 179.91 pts or +0.78% at 23272.24, FTSE 100 higher by 27.85 pts or +0.29% at 9567.74, CAC 40 up 20.01 pts or +0.25% at 8002.66 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 16.74 pts or +0.3% at 5531.83.
• Dow Jones mini up 16 pts or +0.03% at 46331, S&P 500 mini up 21.25 pts or +0.32% at 6640.25, NASDAQ mini up 131.5 pts or +0.54% at 24432.75.