COMMODITIES: Next Objective for Gold is $3800 Handle
The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low. Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3610.2, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- WTI Crude down $0.12 or -0.19% at $63.28
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.81% at $2.83
- Gold spot up $6.72 or +0.18% at $3770.47
- Copper down $1.75 or -0.38% at $462.7
- Silver up $0.12 or +0.27% at $44.1487
- Platinum down $5.16 or -0.35% at $1472
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GERMAN DATA: A Sixth Consecutive Improvement For Ifo Business Climate
The Germany Ifo business climate index increased for a sixth consecutive month in August as it takes it to the high of its range for the past eighteen months, but it still suggests little material upside to tepid German real GDP growth despite this.
- The Ifo Business Climate index was close to expectations as it slightly improved in August to 89.0 (cons 88.8) from 88.6 in July.
- Whilst still subdued by historical standards, it’s nevertheless at its highest since Apr 2024 on the back of six consecutive monthly improvements.
- This trend improvement has come with increases in both the current assessment and more notably the expectations indexes. This expectations-led improvement continued this month, with the expectations index rising to 91.6 (cons 90.5) from 90.8 vs the current assessment edging a tenth lower to 86.4 (cons 86.7).
- A seeming post-pandemic structural break with the historical fit between the business climate index and real GDP growth complicates the readthrough to growth implications, although rolling z-scores have more recently been useful.
- Here, the Ifo business climate has started to look a little more optimistic than the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index (to July) but even then the Ifo series suggests little upside to still tepid German real GDP growth of 0.2% Y/Y as of Q2 (having averaged -0.4% since 1Q23).
MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
- MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
MNI EXCLUSIVE: China's equity market and economic impacts
- Advisors and analysts share their outlook on China's equity market and its economic impact.
- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
