FINANCIALS: New Issue - Swedbank

• 3 RFGB auctions for E1.0-1.5bln each on 15 April, 20 May and 10 June.
• "The net borrowing requirement is estimated at EUR 12.289 billion, resulting in a gross borrowing amount of EUR 41.744 billion. Approximately EUR 24.3 billion of this amount is expected to be covered with long-term debt, and the rest (17.4 billion) with short-term debt."
• Finland has confirmed they are "planning to issue a second new euro benchmark bond of the year, likely in a 10-year maturity" - we had pencilled in an April (or potentially May) E4bln launch for a new 10-year Sep-35 RFGB in our Eurozone Issuance Deep Dive.
• 2 ORI operations in Q2 for E0-400mln each on 3 April and 26 June. For Q3/4, ORIs scheduled for 28 August, 30 October, and 27 November, all E0-400mln.
• "As in previous years, bonds may be issued under the EMTN programme to complement the funding in euro benchmark bonds during the year, market conditions permitting."
• 3 RFTB auctions are planned for E1-2bln each on 8 April, 13 May, and 3 June.
• "In addition to Treasury bill auctions, a tap issuance window may open during the second quarter of the year."
• "The next Quarterly Review will be published on 27 June 2025."

• RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20 
• PRICE: 1.4325 @ 08:08 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

USDCAD continues to trade above last week’s high. A return lower and clearance of 1.4235, the Mar 26 low, would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance to watch is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6331/91 High Mar 26 / High Mar 17 and 18 
• PRICE: 0.6287 @ 08:04 BST Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading in a tight range. A S/T bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.