EMISSIONS: New Estimate of US Exposure to EU CBAM Well Below Trump’s Claim
Sep-24 10:02
Sandbag estimated that US companies would face 351mn in annual CBAM costs on exports to the EU in 20...
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EGBS: Sticking to Friday's pre-Powell range
Aug-25 09:50
- Bund futures drifted lower in pre-European trading before falling a further 10 ticks around 8:00BST this morning. This reversed all of the gains seen following Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole appearance. Lagarde's comments at the symposium had no real impact on short-term monetary policy.
- The moves in futures have seen 10-year Bund cash yields increase 3.4bp on the day with a slight steepening of the curve.
- The day's major data was the German IFO release which came in broadly in line with expectations (89.0 vs 88.8 consensus, 88.6 prior) but the details showed the uptick was on shaky ground while markets showed no reaction to the data release.
- Later today we will receive Belgian business confidence data. However, it is later in the week that the data calendar gets much busier with the most notable releases being French, Spanish, German and Italian flash HICP all due (as well as US GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday).
- The EU-bond auction was well received and saw E5.525bln sold across the 3 lines on offer (against a maximum E6.0bln target) with each line showing the stop price above the pre-auction mid-price. We still have a 8/9/30-year OLO auction due.
- With the UK bank holiday today (closing UK fixed income and equity markets) volumes are expected to remain on the light side today.
EU-BOND AUCTION RESULTS: 2.875% Dec-27 / 3.375% Dec-35 / 3.375% Oct-38 EU-bonds
Aug-25 09:36
| 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond | 3.375% Dec-35 EU-bond | 3.375% Oct-38 EU-bond | |
| ISIN | EU000A3K4EW6 | EU000A4D8KD2 | EU000A3K4D74 |
| Amount | E2.12bln | E1.951bln | E1.454bln |
| Previous | E2.392bln | E2.182bln | E1.174bln |
| Avg yield | 2.12% | 3.12% | 3.49% |
| Previous | 2.33% | 3.10% | 3.38% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.31x | 1.66x | 1.25x |
| Previous | 1.59x | 1.28x | 1.42x |
| Avg Price | 101.66 | 101.52 | 98.81 |
| Low Price | 101.65 | 101.49 | 98.77 |
| Pre-auction mid | 101.636 | 101.422 | 98.682 |
| Prev avg price | 101.45 | 102.46 | 99.93 |
| Prev low price | 101.44 | 102.42 | 99.90 |
| Prev mid-price | 101.416 | 102.374 | 99.852 |
| Previous date | 24-Feb-25 | 23-Jun-25 | 28-Apr-25 |
GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/9-month Bubills
Aug-25 09:33
| Type | 3-month Bubill | 9-month Bubill |
| Maturity | Nov 19, 2025 | May 13, 2026 |
| Allotted | E1.595bln | E2.187bln |
| Previous | E1.9bln | E2.495bln |
| Total sold | E2bln | E3bln |
| Target | E2bln | E3bln |
| Avg yield | 1.839% | 1.913% |
| Previous | 1.799% | 1.806% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.16x | 2.22x |
| Previous | 1.73x | 1.68x |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.72x | 1.62x |
| Previous | 1.64x | 1.39x |
| Previous date | Jul 21, 2025 | Jul 21, 2025 |
