AMERICAS OIL: New England Gas Prices Fall on Day
Feb-26 19:23
New England Gas Prices Fall on Day
New England natgas prices are falling further today as daily consumption ticks up. This should put prices back to levels last seen early January.
- Algonquin Citygate is down 39 cents/MMBtu, according to NGI.
- Tennessee Zone 5 200L is down 9.5 cents/MMBtu, NGI said.
- Total demand into New England is at 3.18 bcf/d, up around 0.20 bcf/d on the day, the EIA said. Consumption is near its lowest level since early Jan
- Total consumption has dropped below levels during same period in 2023& 2024 and returned to within the 5-year range since Feb. 20.
- The 6-10-day forecast shows below normal temperatures, while the 8-14-day forecast shows normal levels. The temperature forecasts have also been revised milder.
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FED: Jan 2025 FOMC Analyst Views: QT Seen Ending Mid-Year (2/2)
Jan-27 19:21
All analysts expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at the January meeting.
- Statement: Changes are seen being limited largely to the first paragraph describing current economic conditions. Most focus is on the labor market language, which – for those analysts who expect statement tweaks – could shift slightly to reflect some stabilization in conditions in recent months, vs previous easing.
- Forward guidance is expected to be unchanged.
- QT: The Fed is seen ending quantitative tightening (more specifically, for Treasuries, with MBS continuing to run off), at some point between March and September 2025 – consensus is for a mid-year (ie June) end.
FED: Jan 2024 FOMC Analyst Views: Wide Range Of Cutting Calls (1/2)
Jan-27 19:19
Analysts enter the first FOMC meeting of 2025 expecting anywhere from zero rate cuts to 125bp worth of reductions by year-end, with March the first plausibly “live” meeting.
- The central expectation is for 50bp of reductions in 2025, with analysts either looking for front-loaded (March, June) or back-loaded (September, December) reductions.
- Some see more easing in 2026 than in 2025 (Barclays, Deutsche Nomura).
- None expect the FOMC to hike.
FED: MNI Fed Preview - Jan 2025: Analyst Outlook
Jan-27 18:58
Note to readers: This update of our Jan 24 preview includes analyst expectations for the January FOMC meeting and beyond (Starting Page 20)
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