US NATGAS: New England EOD – Demand Declines
Apr-15 20:02
- Total Demand into New England revised 340 mmcf/d lower to 2.63 bcf/d
- The latest GFS 15day forecast for Boston has total HDDs at 196 which is a decrease of 25 HDDs compared to the previous run. And is 13 HDDs warmer than the 10yr normal.
- Bloomberg has end user demand 362 mmcf/d higher on the day, comprised of 38% power demand, 47% residential and commercial demand, and 15% industrial demand.
- Power demand increased by 33 mmcf, ResCom demand increased by 257 mmcf, and Industrial demand increased by 73 mmcf d/d.
- Canadian imports are up 8 mmcf/d to 237 mmcf/d today compared to the 7-day average of 240 mmcf/d.
- LNG supply from Everett is remains at 0 mmcf/d.
- Operational utilization at the Chaplin compressor station on AGT is revised 139 mmcf/d lower to 662 mmcf/d, or 61% operational capacity.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
