EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Netherlands 2026 Funding Plan

Dec-12 15:01
  • DSTA borrowing requirement for 2025: E112.0bln. This consists of E41.0bln cash deficit , E42.2bln from DTC redemptions and E28.8bln from capital markets redemptions.
  • The 2024 funding need was initially estimated at E105.0bln (inc E14.2bln TenneT loan facility) before being revised to E106.4bln in January down to E88.9bln in March (as the expected cash deficit was reduced) and E87.1bln in September.
  • The funding will be derived from E50bln from capital markets (higher than the E40bln 2024 target and we think higher than expected).
    2026 plan include the following:
    • New 10-year 2036 DSL (to be launched via DDA for E6-7bln in Q1 and then reopened for a further E8-9bln).
    • New 5-year Jan-31 DSL to launch via conventional auction for E4-5bln on 13 January and then reopened for E10-11bln.
    • New 10+ year DSL (to be launched via DDA for E6bln, time TBC).
    • Other DSLs (TBA): E14bln with the first two auctions to be held in Q1-26.
    • DSL auctions will remain on the second and fourth Tuesday of the month.

Historical bullets

GILTS: Off Pullback Lows, Bulls Remain In Control

Nov-12 14:55

Gilts draw support from the bid in EGBs and cross-market inputs (oil lower & equities off highs) detailed in recent bullets.

  • Bears failed to close yesterday’s opening gap higher in futures and the technical picture in the contract remains bullish, with key resistance located at 93.98.

SOFR OPTIONS: Midcurve Put strip

Nov-12 14:55

2QX5 96.75/96.68p strip, bought for half in 4k.

EURGBP TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

Nov-12 14:55
  • Fresh Cycle HighRES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25    
  • RES 3: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg  
  • RES 2: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing 
  • RES 1: 0.8838 Intraday high  
  • PRICE: 0.8836 @ 14:54 GMT Nov 12
  • SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3   
  • SUP 2: 0.8761 20-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: 0.8722 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend cycle in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross has traded higher today, resulting in a breach of 0.8830, the Nov 5 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8848, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8761, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight a possible short-term reversal.