ISRAEL: Netanyahu Says IDF Will Occupy Gaza Before Transferring To Civilian Govt

• EUR/USD: $1.1600(E536mln), $1.1675-90(E742mln), $1.1700(E1.7bln)
• USD/JPY: Y144.00-10($1.4bln), Y144.50($860mln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8655-65(E633mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6425(A$700mln), $0.6550(A$557mln)
• NZD/USD: $0.6075(N$519mln)

Trump on Truth Social: Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
As per letters sent to various countries yesterday, in addition to letters that will be sent today, tomorrow, and for the next short period of time, TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change. In other words, all money will be due and payable starting AUGUST 1, 2025 - No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

• Unlike its antipodean counterpart, the firmer greenback on Tuesday is allowing NZD (-0.25%) to extend this week’s decline, notable given the proximity to Wednesday’s RBNZ decision. While sell-side consensus is for the RBNZ to remain on hold (consistent with market pricing), there are some forecasters looking for a rate cut tomorrow.
• Recent inflation outcomes arguably provide the strongest signal that the RBNZ should hold pat but in contrast, growth indicators are still arguing for easier policy settings. While the central bank is likely to be comfortable to preserve policy space at this juncture, it is likely to leave the door ajar for further policy support given headwinds to domestic growth. The MNI preview is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4nxxl4h
• For NZDUSD, today’s weakness has closed the gap to an important support level at 0.5984, the 50-day EMA. A close below this average would mark the first daily close below since April 09, threatening the bullish underlying trend. Below here, 0.5883 would be the next target before 0.5847, the double bottom seen in mid-May and an important pivot support.
• As noted earlier, AUDNZD has had a solid 0.5% bounce to a six-week high of 1.0887. Trendline support drawn from the April lows has helped underpin the latest recovery, targeting a more protracted bounce to 1.0922 and the early April highs just above 1.10.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI