SOFR: Net Short Setting Dominated Through The Greens On Thursday
Jul-18 10:35
OI data points to net short setting dominating in pack terms through the SOFR greens on Thursday, albeit with some isolated pockets of net long cover seen.
- Net long cover was slightly more prominent in the blues, where positioning swings were modest.
| 17-Jul-25 | 16-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,239,477 | 1,254,145 | -14,668 | Whites | +26,232 |
SFRU5 | 1,247,959 | 1,230,097 | +17,862 | Reds | +31,898 |
SFRZ5 | 1,305,434 | 1,291,251 | +14,183 | Greens | +23,356 |
SFRH6 | 1,011,368 | 1,002,513 | +8,855 | Blues | -1,333 |
SFRM6 | 882,843 | 862,753 | +20,090 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 836,842 | 829,318 | +7,524 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 914,256 | 914,465 | -209 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 732,677 | 728,184 | +4,493 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 701,655 | 691,981 | +9,674 |
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|
SFRU7 | 509,645 | 511,260 | -1,615 |
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SFRZ7 | 455,139 | 448,681 | +6,458 |
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SFRH8 | 316,162 | 307,323 | +8,839 |
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SFRM8 | 229,463 | 231,070 | -1,607 |
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SFRU8 | 208,177 | 207,344 | +833 |
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|
SFRZ8 | 207,705 | 207,600 | +105 |
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|
SFRH9 | 150,585 | 151,249 | -664 |
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|
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Jun18 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jun-18 10:30
- EUR/USD: $1.1500(E2.2bln), $1.1600-04(E1.0bln), $1.1645-50(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Y144.00($725mln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5760(N$1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3600($1.4bln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3000($858mln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Outlook Trend Structure Remains Bearish
Jun-18 10:30
- In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.1696, a 1.618 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing. Initial firm support is at 1.1425, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1286. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
- A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3496. The latest move down is considered corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. The next important support lies at 1.3350, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger has been defined at 1.3632, the Jun 13 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- USDJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. A bearish trend condition remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is 145.46, Jun 11 high.
STIR: Fed Not Seen Cutting Until October Ahead Of Today’s FOMC w/ Dot Plot
Jun-18 10:29
- Fed Funds implied rates are 2bp lower than yesterday’s most hawkish levels for the Dec’25 FOMC meeting although still only have a next cut priced for October.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp for today, 3.5bp Jul, 18.5bp Sep, 30bp Oct and 46bp Dec.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.265% (SFRZ6) is 1.5bp lower on the day, consolidating yesterday’s twist flattening on intensification in geopolitical tensions.
- Today’s docket is of course headlined by the FOMC decision. MNI Preview here.
- Special mention does however go to weekly jobless at 0830ET, brought a day forward owing to tomorrow’s Juneteenth holiday. Initial claims cover a payrolls reference period whilst continuing claims will be watched after their notable push higher in the latest two weeks.
