OIL: Net Bullish Nymex WTI Crude Oil Bets Cut to 16-Year Low

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6525 @ 17:09 BST Jul 16
• SUP 1: 0.6495 Low Jul 16
• SUP 2: 0.6488/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback - for now - appears corrective. Resistance at 0.6590 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the uptrend plus maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6488, the 50-day EMA.     

With a few exceptions, SOFR & Treasury options saw better call volumes carry over from overnight, huge Green Mar'26 SOFR Call spd add (+200k/wk) and not a particularly useful buy of 100k way-out of the money TYQ5 calls at sub-cab levels. Underlying futures remain firmer/near session , projected rate cut pricing gain slightly vs this morning's pre-data (*) levels: Jul'25 at -0.6bp, Sep'25 at -15.2bp (-14.2bp), Oct'25 at -28.6bp (-27.1bp), Dec'25 at -46.8bp (-43.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +150,000 2QH6 98.00/98.25 call spds .87 (adds to +50k on Monday for 1.0)
  • +6,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.06/96.18/96.31 put condors, 0.0 vs. 96.6/0.10%
  • Block/pit, -10,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 3.75
  • 2,500 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75/95.87 put flys, ref 96.08
  • -19,750 SFRQ5 95.68/95.75 put spds 1.25 ref 95.815
  • Block/screen, +20,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.50 call spds vs. 96.00/96.12 put spds, 0.5 net vs. 96.31/0.15%
  • 1,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.75/95.872x3x1 broken put flys ref 95.815
• Treasury Options:
  • -100,000 TYQ5 115.5 calls, cab-7
  • over -60,000 TYU5 107/108 put spds, 5 ref 110-15.5
  • 2,100 USQ5 111/111.5 put spds, 9 ref 112-20
  • 2,500 TYQ5 107.5/108.5 2x1 put spds ref 110-18
  • 9,100 TYV5 109 puts 41 ref 110-13.5
  • Block, 7,500 TYV5 108 puts, 25 vs. 110-14/0.20%
  • Block, 7,500 TYV5 108/TYX5 107.5 put spds, 3 vs. 110-16/0.56
  • +5,000 TYU5 113/115 1x2 call spds, 2 vs. 110-12.5/0.05%
  • -2,500 TUU5 103.25 puts, 5.5
  • +15,000 TYU5 115 calls, 3
  • +10,000 TYU5 115.5 calls, 3
  • +5,000 TYU5 108/109 put spds, 11
  • Block/screen over +47,000 TYU5 108.5/109.5 put spds 16 vs. 110-10/0.15%
  • 2,500 TUU5 103.12/103.37/103.5/103.62 broken put condors, 0.5 net ref 103-17.12
  • -3,000 TYQ5 109.75/110.75 call over risk reversals, 0.0
  • 4,300 TYV5 111/112 call spds ref 110-08
  • 4,250 TYQ5 110.5 calls ref 110-12

• CANADA 2025-26 DEBT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEES CAD623B OF BORROWING