US TSY FUTURES: Nearing Key Support
- Treasury futures extending session lows again, Sep'23 10Y futures marking 111-13.5 (-23), just above key support of 111-11 (61.8% retracement of the Jul 7 - 18 rally). Breach puts focus on 110-28 (76.4% retracement of the Jul 7 - 18 rally).
- Curves inching steeper at the moment as short end lagging current sell-off in long end, 2s10s +.912 at -97.983.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Sep'23 2Y Buy
+7,000 TUU3 102-01.25, buy through 102-01.12 post-time offer at 1003:40ET, futures continue to trade weaker post-data, 102-00.5 last (-2.75).
US TSY FUTURES: Post-Data React: Extending lows
Treasury futures reverse course yet again, Sep'23 10Y futures extending lows: currently -8.5 at 112-31 after latest round of data: Consumer Confidence highest since early 2022 at 109.7 vs. 103.8 est, better than expected New Home Sales at 763k vs. 675k est. Curves holding narrow band near recent lows.
US: Speaker McCarthy-"Don't Know" If Trump Is Strongest Candidate For 2024 Race
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has been speaking to CNBC on a number of subjects. On the topic of Donald Trump running for the GOP nomination and potentially the presidency in 2024, McCarthy takes a risk in not offering his full-throated support for the clear frontrunner. When asked about Trump's run McCarthy states “Can he win that election [the GOP primaries]? Yeah he can…the question is, is he the strongest to win the election, I don’t know that answer,”
- McCarthy finds himself in a precarious situation with such a narrow majority in the House and many hard-liners in the Republican caucus openly musing on his continuation as speaker. Given this group is frequently the most vocal in its support of the former president, raising questions about Trump's election willing ability could place a target on McCarthy's back with regards to partisan attacks from his own side.
- Separately, on the Wagner mutiny in Russia McCarthy states that the incident shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "isolated” and “slow to make decisions.” McCarthy: “Prigozhin was very public for the last month or so criticizing Putin severely like nobody else has done...He threatened many different ways. The Putin of old, Prigozhin would have fallen out a window or something. This would have never sustained itself.”
