US TSYS: Nearing Early May Highs, Mixed Data, US$ Weakness
- Treasuries look to finish near late session highs after digesting a deluge of mixed data and multiple Fed speakers on the day.
- Initial jobless claims fell more than expected in the week of June 21, to 236k (243k survey) while continuing claims set a fresh post-Nov 2021 high, up to 1,974k (1,937k prior ref down 8k), much higher than the 1,950k expected in the Jun 14 week.
- Durable goods orders were much stronger than expected in May across the board. The headline reading soared 16.4% M/M (SA), more than reversing April's 6.6% drop (rev from -6.6%) for the biggest monthly rise since July 2014 to a record-high seasonally-adjusted level, and well above the 8.5% increase expected.
- The advance goods trade deficit was bigger than anticipated in May, with the $96.6B shortfall comfortably exceeding the $86.1B survey.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures climbed to 112-01.5 (+11.5) nearing resistance at 12-04.5 (High May 2) followed by 112-23 (High May 1 and key resistance). Curves steeper: 2s10s +2.838 at 53.417, 5s30s +3.269 at 101.281.
- Stocks climbed to Feb 20 highs while the dollar index sunk to fresh cycle lows on Thursday amid President Trump’s most recent rhetoric regarding the Federal reserve remaining a key driver of the moves in G10.
- Friday look ahead: Personal Income & Spending, UofM sentiment and more Fed speakers on tap.
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EURJPY TECHS: Has Breached The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 163.94/164.07 High May 27 / 15
- PRICE: 163.54 @ 17:06 BST May 27
- SUP 1: 161.09 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
EURJPY has recently traded through a key support at 162..30, the 50-day EMA. The clear break undermines a bearish theme and signals scope for a possible deeper retracement. This would open 160.99, the Apr 22 low. Clearance of this level would expose 160.01, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high. First resistance is 163.41, high May 22.
US TSYS: Roll Update: Almost 2/3 Done
The June/September Treasury futures roll is almost two-thirds complete, picking up after the Memorial Day weekend. Latest estimates in table below:
| Today's Roll Completion % Estimate | Prior Session End-Day Roll Completion % | 1-Session pp Change | ||
| TUM/TUU | 2 Yr | 64.5 | 52.7 | 11.8 |
| FVM/FVU | 5 Yr | 65.5 | 54.2 | 11.3 |
| TYM/TYU | 10 Yr | 60.8 | 53.8 | 7.0 |
| USM/USU | 30 Yr | 65.5 | 55.5 | 10.0 |
| WNM/WNU | Ultra | 64.6 | 52.7 | 11.9 |
USDJPY TECHS: Rallies Hard Off Lows
- RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 144.49/145.73 20- and 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 144.38 @ 16:59 BST May 27
- SUP 1: 142.12 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
- SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY underwent a solid intraday rally, however broader trend conditions remain soft - meaning today’s strength is - for now - considered corrective. Support at 142.36, the May 6 low, has been pierced, and a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and the next key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.73, the 50-day EMA.
