POLAND: NBP Point to Global Trade Policies as Source of Uncertainty

The House of Representatives returns today with a week to endorse the compromise budget blueprint adopted by the Senate last week, before lawmakers depart Washington, D.C. for Easter. 

• Reminder: Both chambers of Congress must adopt an identical budget resolution to unlock reconciliation – the process by which the GOP can pass President Donald Trump’s tax and spending agenda along party lines.
• Note: The two chambers remain deeply divided over how hard to cut government spending and the wisdom of using an accounting gimmick to score extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at $0.
• Punchbowl News notes: “Could it be done? Sure. They don’t have the votes but we have rarely seen House or Senate Republicans do anything that goes against [Trump's] will. [House Republican] leadership is arguing against amending this resolution because of the problems it will cause with the Senate...  our base case is that there will be a lot of crowing and complaining, but eventually House Republicans will fall in line and pass this budget resolution.”
• The strategy for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and President Trump this week will again be to apply maximum pressure on House Republicans to get in line to move the agenda to the next stage of reconciliation. They will likely argue that misgivings can be ironed out during the drafting phase. They will also remind Republicans that dissent will be met with a well-funded primary campaign.  

• TYM5 briefly hits a low of 111-15+ on the unsubstantiated headlines before lifting to 112-01 and now up to 112-11 in fluid trading.
• It’s through support at 112-01 (Mar 4 high and breakout level).
• If sustained, next support at 111-08 (20-day EMA).

Speaking at a press conference following the conclusion of a meeting of EU trade ministers, Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic says that "We are not [supporting] tit-for-tat or dollar-for-dollar retaliation [to US tariffs] but considering all instruments on the table." Official statement from Sefcovic can be found here. Confirms dates for tariffs: "The vote is set for April 9, with the final list adopted on April 15. Duties on products will kick in on that day for the first set of measures, and on May 15 for the remaining ones."

• Sefcovic: "At this stage, we are not willing to discuss what instruments we would use or the reasons why our response is gradual."
• Sefcovic says, "Despite EU efforts, we have not seen engagement [with the US] which would lead to a mutually acceptable solution." Says that "We are ready to talk with the US but solutions need to be mutually advantageous."
• Sefcovic: "VAT is an important source of income for EU member states and we will not change our VAT system."
• Earlier, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that "Europe is ready to negotiate with the US. We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods."