POLAND: NBP Expected To Extend Interest-Rate Pause
- The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged today (reference rate at 5.75%). Some Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members have cautiously flagged potential for rate cuts in 2H2025 but any interest-rate action is unlikely before then, with Governor Adam Glapinski positioned towards the hawkish end of the spectrum relative to his colleagues. There is no fixed time for the release of the statement or rate decision, but the Governor will hold his regular press conference tomorrow afternoon. See our full preview of this NBP meeting here.
- Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled plans to reshuffle and reduce his cabinet to "one of the smallest in Europe" after the upcoming presidential election. WP.pl reported that the list of cabinet members who may lose their posts are Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Siekierski, Environment Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska, Industry Minister Marzena Czarnecka, Equality Minister Katarzyna Kotula, Funding and Regional Policy Minister Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Health Minister Izabela Leszczyna and Development and Technology Minister Krzysztof Paszyk.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6006.92/6107.50 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 5999.25 @ 07:45 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt opening calls, 91.91/91.95 range.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls, set for a Positive Open
The small early Risk On tone will see Cash European markets open in the Green this Morning, price action looked to be US led with the Emini just testing the January high, and the 6000.00 mark.
For VGH5, the index is still short of last Week's high of 4942.00.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.76%, Dax: +0.48%, CAC: +0.64%, FTSE +0.15%, SMI +0.65%.
