HUNGARY: NBH Reiterates Need for Discipline, Russia Crude Shipments Halted Again
- Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, NBH Governor Mihaly Varga reiterated that Hungary’s central bank is focused on a “careful and patient” monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations amid upward price pressures. “Disciplined” monetary policy is needed to maintain market stability, he said. His comments come ahead of the NBH meeting on August 26, at which no change to the 6.50% base rate is expected.
- In a post on Facebook, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Russian crude oil shipments to Hungary have been halted again, noting that the Druzhba oil pipeline on the Russian-Belarusian border had been attacked for the third time in a short period. “This is another attack on our country's energy security. Another attempt to drag us into war. It won't work! We will continue to support peace efforts with all our strength and defend our national interests!” he said.
- No major economic releases are scheduled for today, with focus turning to next week's rates decision.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6570 @ 08:05 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. It has recently been breached, however, the pair has found support below it. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
STIR: Flash PMIs and ECB Decision Next Scheduled Risk Events For EUR STIRs
Barring any more unexpected developments on the trade/tariff front, the market is waiting for tomorrow’s July flash PMIs and ECB decision/press conference to determine the next move in front-end EUR rates. There is no implied probability of a cut at tomorrow’s decision, while 24 of 29 analysts we review in our ECB preview expect a cut to follow in September - more dovish than the 12bp priced in ECB-dated OIS. The next and currently perceived final cut for the cycle isn’t priced until December.
- OIS pricing is up to 1bp more hawkish than yesterday’s close, while Euribor futures are -1.0 to -3.0 ticks lower through the blues. The Euribor strip sits bear steeper, taking cues from movements in broader core FI.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with Eurozone flash July consumer confidence due at 1500BST.
- MNI’s full ECB preview is here.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.923 | 0.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.804 | -11.9 |
| Oct-25 | 1.768 | -15.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.663 | -26.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.645 | -27.9 |
| Mar-26 | 1.613 | -31.0 |
| Apr-26 | 1.617 | -30.7 |
| Jun-26 | 1.619 | -30.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 1: 173.24 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 172.44 @ 07:58 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 171.37 Low Jul 22
- SUP 2: 170.97 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.32 Low Jul 3
- SUP 4: 168.24 50-day EMA
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights a dominant uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 170.97, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
