HUNGARY: NBH Reiterates Need for Discipline, Russia Crude Shipments Halted Again
* Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, NBH Governor Mihaly Varga reiterated that Hungary's cent...
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AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6570 @ 08:05 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. It has recently been breached, however, the pair has found support below it. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
STIR: Flash PMIs and ECB Decision Next Scheduled Risk Events For EUR STIRs
Barring any more unexpected developments on the trade/tariff front, the market is waiting for tomorrow’s July flash PMIs and ECB decision/press conference to determine the next move in front-end EUR rates. There is no implied probability of a cut at tomorrow’s decision, while 24 of 29 analysts we review in our ECB preview expect a cut to follow in September - more dovish than the 12bp priced in ECB-dated OIS. The next and currently perceived final cut for the cycle isn’t priced until December.
- OIS pricing is up to 1bp more hawkish than yesterday’s close, while Euribor futures are -1.0 to -3.0 ticks lower through the blues. The Euribor strip sits bear steeper, taking cues from movements in broader core FI.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with Eurozone flash July consumer confidence due at 1500BST.
- MNI’s full ECB preview is here.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.923 | 0.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.804 | -11.9 |
| Oct-25 | 1.768 | -15.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.663 | -26.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.645 | -27.9 |
| Mar-26 | 1.613 | -31.0 |
| Apr-26 | 1.617 | -30.7 |
| Jun-26 | 1.619 | -30.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 1: 173.24 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 172.44 @ 07:58 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 171.37 Low Jul 22
- SUP 2: 170.97 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.32 Low Jul 3
- SUP 4: 168.24 50-day EMA
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights a dominant uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 170.97, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
