HUNGARY: NBH Governor, Deputy Governor and Economy Minister All Set to Speak
- NBH Governor Mihaly Varga, Deputy Governor Zoltan Kurali and Economy Minister Marton Nagy are all scheduled to speak today. Varga and Nagy will speak at 09:20BST/10:20CET, while Kurali will speak at a panel discussion with banking executives at 13:00BST/14:00CET.
- Retail trade in Hungary rose 1.7% y/y in July from +3.0% in June. That was below expectations of a larger +3.1% expansion and marks the lowest for the series since March. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco rose 2.3% y/y versus +3.7% in June while sales of non-food products rose 2.9% y/y compared to a prior +3.9%.
- No other data releases are scheduled for today. Industrial production figures for July (Est: -3.2% y/y; Prior: -4.9%) are due tomorrow morning.
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JPY: USDJPY breaks the Overnight high
- As just mentioned in the last comment, USDJPY could be underpinned as Bond Desks turn their attention to the heavy Auctions Today.
- USDJPY sees a quick tiny 15 pips gain after breaking above the Overnight high.
- Small resistance moves down to 147.52, but most Market Participants will look at 148.09, Yesterday's high for the first resistance.
SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $37.349 @ 07:50 BST Aug 5
- SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg
- SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the recent unconstructive price action. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the $36.604 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
FRANCE DATA: Very Strong June IP Driven By Aircraft/Spacecraft; Bunds Weaker
Much stronger-than-expected headline (3.8% M/M vs 0.6% cons, -0.7% prior) and manufacturing (3.5% M/M vs 1.2% cons, -1.2% prior) IP print from France. The manufacturing reading was the highest sequential growth rate since 2020.
From INSEE: "In June 2025*, output increased strongly in the manufacture of transport equipment (+16.6% after +0.3%): this exceptional increase was mainly driven by the manufacture of “other transport equipment (manufacture of aircraft, building of ships, manufacture of railway locomotives...)” (+26.7% after +1.8%), and more precisely in the manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft. It was due to the catching up on the month of delays accumulated on the quarter and the removal of constraints on supply chain for some companies in this sector."
The print helps Bunds to fresh session lows (now +3 at 130.30), but it's still a very contained reaction.
