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• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the pullback between Sep 17 - 25, appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.1684. the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a 2.00 projection of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.
• The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play and the latest bounce - for now - appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.
• USDJPY continues to weaken as the retracement from last week’s high print extends. The move down - for now - appears corrective. However, support at 147.60, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose pivot support at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 150.92, Aug 1 high.

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EUR selling pressure helps tip EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP through to new daily lows. Little headline flow or news to trigger the phase of EUR weakness here, although it does coincide with Bund futures creeping back to flat on the day, as mentioned above. Gov shutdown risks and the BoJ Tankan survey have been the primary drivers so far today, but the latest phase of EUR weakness stands out somewhat - but looks largely flow driven at this stage.

• Futures markets show a decent pick-up in interest in EUR selling 1118BST, which marked some of the best activity of the session so far, even including the price action across the PMI and HICP releases. Over 3k EUR Z5 futures contracts traded into the session low for a cash equivalent of just below E500mln.
• The fade in price tips spot toward some of the more sizeable options interest rolling off at today's cut, with E2.4bln expiring between $1.1700-10 today.