POLAND: Nawrocki Meets W/Mentzen, Finance Ministry Holds Downsized Bond Auction
May-22 06:59
- First-round presidential front-runner Rafał Trzaskowski unveiled General Jacek Siewiera as his advisor, citing the need for continuity in national security matters. Siewiera recently stepped down as head of the National Security Bureau (BBN) under incumbent President Andrzej Duda, ostensibly to take up a scholarship at the University of Oxford. Trzaskowski has also reached out to left-wing candidates Adrian Zandberg and Joanna Senyszyn, expressing hope for imminent meetings. Meanwhile, Zandberg's camp brushed away press reports suggesting that he was offered a Housing portfolio in Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government in exchange for support for Trzaskowski, even as the presidential candidate said it was a good idea.
- Separately, Trzaskowski said that he is going for a meeting with far-right Confederation's Sławomir Mentzen to 'speak indirectly' with his voters, adding that he thought that 'on most issues, we would come to an understanding', even as he disagreed with some of the eight postulates unveiled by Mentzen. First-round runner-up Karol Nawrocki will be a guest on Mentzen's YouTube channel today at 12:00BST/13:00CEST and has already agreed to sign a list of Mentzen's eight postulates. Speaking on an internet show, Confederation leader said that Nawrocki had already 'copied' his manifesto anyway.
- The declaration drafted by Mentzen includes commitments to block any attempts to: increase taxes, restrict the use of cash, limit freedom of speech, deploy Polish troops to Ukraine, ratify Ukraine's accession to NATO, restrict access to firearms, delegate more competencies to the EU or ratify any new treaties weakening Poland's position in the EU.
- Elsewhere, while presiding over parliament's plenary session, Confederation's co-leader and Deputy Marshal of the Sejm Krzysztof Bosak urged undecided voters to 'vote against Rafał Trzaskowski, whom I consider to be a bigger threat.' For context, Bosak leads Confederation's nationalist wing, while Mentzen heads the economic libertarians.
- Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Prime Minister Donald Tusk will attend an emergency meeting with military commanders at the Naval Operations Centre in Gdynia following the detection of suspicious activity of a sanctioned vessel from the Russian 'shadow fleet' near a power cable connecting Poland with Sweden.
- The Finance Ministry is looking to sell PLN6bn-10bn (down from PLN6bn-12bn in preliminary debt supply schedule) of OK0128, DS1029, WZ0330, PS0730, DS1033 and DS1034 bonds today.
- Statistics Poland will report April construction output at 09:00BST/10:00CEST.
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SOFR: SFRU6/H7 Trades
Apr-22 06:58
SFRU6/H7 ~4.2K trades at 9.5, initiated by a seller to start.
STIR: OIS Pricing ECB Terminal Of 1.50% Following Dovish April Decision
Apr-22 06:54
ECB-dated OIS almost fully price another 25bp cut in June, following the dovish, growth-centric tone of last week’s decision/press conference. OIS almost price another three 25bp cuts this cycle (~71/72bps through Feb/March 2026), implying a terminal rate of just over 1.50%.
- MNI’s ECB review, published last week, is here.
- The Euribor strip has twist steepened, with whites flat to +2.5 ticks and blues -1.5 to -2.5 ticks from Thursday’s settlement levels. The ERM5/M6 spread once again reached a -38.0 tick low (now -2.0 ticks at -37.0 ticks), a breach of which would expose the June 2024 low at -39.5 ticks.
- Yesterday, ECB’s Kazaks said in a blog that “Recession is not currently the base scenario, but with potentially such large-scale changes in geopolitics and global trade, its probability is high”. However, Muller struck a more cautious tone noting that “Financial markets have an expectation that the ECB will further lower interest rates, but it seems to me that we need to be careful in assessing the inflation outlook”.
- Today’s regional data calendar is headlined by the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters at 0900BST/1000CET. Q4 ’24 EU fiscal is also due at 1000BST.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Cut-adjusted Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.933 | -23.4 |
| Jul-25 | 1.775 | -39.2 |
| Sep-25 | 1.591 | -57.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.525 | -64.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.464 | -70.3 |
| Feb-26 | 1.453 | -71.4 |
| Mar-26 | 1.452 | -71.5 |
| Apr-26 | 1.459 | -70.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Condor buyer
Apr-22 06:54
ERZ5 98.1875/98.4375/98.6875/98.9375c condor, bought for 10 in 14k.
