US NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: TTF Falls

Oct-31 18:23

Henry Hub front month regained some lost ground today, supported by record-setting feedgas demand and some mixed weather data

  • US Natgas DEC 25 up 4.4% at 4.13$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JAN 26 up 3.8% at 4.37$/mmbtu
  • Baker Hughes gas rig count: 125 (+4)
  • Forecasts shifted cooler in the Midwest and East for Nov. 10-14: Vaisala.
  • LNG feedgas demand reached 17.83 bcf/d today, a new record according to MNI.
  • BNEF estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 109.03 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 107.54 Bcf/d.
  • U.S. dry gas consumption is estimated at 78.98 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 80.96 Bcf/d.
  • LNG imports to China in October likely fell for a 12th straight month on an annual basis to about 5.65m tons, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
  • Japan’s JERA and Tohoku Electric Power can secure alternative LNG supplies if flows from Russia's Sakhalin-2 are interrupted, according to Reuters citing company executives.
  • The decline  in China’s manufacturing PMI signals renewed weakness in the domestic economy and is bearish short term for natgas demand, Platts said.
  • US LNG cargo exports rose to 34 in the week to Oct. 29 from 32 the prior week, according to the EIA.  Total capacity of the vessels rose to 129bcf from 122bcf the previous week.
  • Atlantic LNG freight rates continue to rally with Spark30S up by $10k to a new high of $61.25k/day, according to Spark Commodities.
  • Israel’s energy minister said he was holding up the approval of a gas deal with Egypt, claiming he was defying US pressure until he could secure better commercial terms for the Israeli market, the FT reported.

Historical bullets

US DATA: Shutdown Calendar Update: No NFPs/Claims, But Some Jobs Data Upcoming

Oct-01 18:22

We've updated our shutdown data calendar to make clearer that weekly jobless claims will not be released so long as the shutdown goes on (despite some speculation we had heard to the contrary, the BLS messaging last night and today has been clear enough). Shutdown Guide-Oct120252.pdf

  • We are also confident that nonfarm payrolls will not be released Friday as today's Senate votes failed and any shutdown resolution will come only after the release time (there will not be any Congressional votes Thursday).
  • That still gives us a little labor market data Thursday morning though it is not listed on our calendar: Challenger job cuts at 0730ET and the Chicago Fed's new Labor Market Indicators release at 0830 (which will provide a "final" forecast for the September unemployment rate, link here)
  • Additionally, we heard on Bloomberg TV earlier today that BBG has plans to compile its own weekly jobless claims data via obtaining the state-by-state numbers, though we don't have confirmation or details.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Dec'25 2Y Broken Put Fly

Oct-01 18:06
  • 6,500 TUZ5 103.87/104.37/104.50/104.87 broken put flys ref 104-09.62

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B Vistra Operations 2Pt Launched

Oct-01 18:00
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 10/01 $2.5B #Bahrain $1.5B +8Y Sukuk 5.875%, $1B 12Y 6.625%
  • 10/01 $2B #Vistra Operations $750M 3Y +75, $500M 5Y +93, $750M 10Y +118
  • 10/01 $750M Alpha Generation $750M 8.25NC3 6.375%
  • 10/01 $500M #Convatec Group 10Y +125
  • 10/01 $500M Jane Street Grp 2033 tap
  • 10/01 $Benchmark IFC 5Y SOFR+38