US NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Volatile
Henry Hub has drifted down further today as expiry sparks volatile trading.
- US Natgas JUL 25 down 5% at 3.56$/mmbtu
- Forecasts for US inventory changes: 97 bcf (Bbg), 93 bcf (WSJ), +99 bcf (Reuters). 5-year avg. 98 bcf
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is up 2.3 bcf/d on the day to 68.4 bcf/d and is above the 7-day average of 66.3 bcf/d, BNEF shows.
- The latest NOAA 6-14 forecast shows that temperatures in the east and Midwest have moved above normal, while Mountain and Pacific regions are shifting below normal.
- A tropical depression named Alvin will form of Mexico’s coast this week according to the US National Hurricane Center, starting off what is likely to be a busy hurricane season, Bloomberg said.
- Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are down 300 mmcf/d today to 14.50 bcf/d, Bloomberg shows, slightly below the 7-day average of 14.7 bcf/d.
- US domestic natural gas production is at 106.3 bcf/d today, down from 106.8 bcf/d yesterday to the lowest since May 15. It compares to the 7-day average of 106.9 bcf/d according to BNEF.
- European gas storage was 46.58% full on May 26, according to GIE, compared to the previous five-year average of 57.85%. Net injection rates have trended near-normal in recent days, having fallen below normal through most of the second half of May.
- Bangladesh awarded a spot LNG cargo tender to South Korea’s Posco for July 11-12 delivery at $12.68/MMBtu, Platts said.
- The LNG carrier Cool Rider, destined for Argentina with an estimated arrival on June 7, was moored at the Río de la Plata lightering area on May 27, Platts said.
- Russia’s natural gas production was 55.9 bcm in April, up 2.4% on the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Rosstat data.
- MNI Gas Weekly: Download Full Report Here
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USDJPY TECHS: Fades Off Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 147.26 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- RES 2: 144.47 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
- PRICE: 142.66 @ 16:46 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
Recent gains in USDJPY are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.47, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.26. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.
US DATA: Manufacturing Prices Paid Picked Up Again In April (2/2)
Meanwhile the average of current Prices Paid indices across four regional Feds (Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia - excludes Richmond which publishes a % change and not an index) hit a 33-month high (Jul 2022) in April.
- Three of the four in our index saw an increase in April vs March with the exception of KC which was unchanged, and notably Richmond prices paid hit the highest since January 2023.
- Current consensus is for ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid to rise to 73.0 in April from 69.4 prior, marking a fresh post-June 2022 high.
- The regional Fed readings suggest an increase in that category is certainly to be expected, and the magnitude seen in consensus in the low 70s doesn't appear to be far off.
US DATA: Regional Feds Point To Sharp ISM Manufacturing Pullback In April (1/2)
Four of the five major regional Fed manufacturing surveys deteriorated in April (Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas - the exception was New York which was still very weak) versus March.
- This dragged the average of the 5 indices to the lowest since May 2020. At that time, the ISM Manufacturing index was in the low 40s.
- Average forward-looking expectations fell to the lowest since October 2022 on average in the 5 Fed surveys.
- This was the 3rd consecutive sequential deterioration in the 5-Fed index average, and we would expect the April ISM Manufacturing index to do likewise in April (50.9 in January, 50.3 in February, 49.0 in March).
- Current consensus is for ISM manufacturing (out Thursday at 1000ET) to print 48.0 in April, but we would see the risks to this firmly to the downside.
