NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Under Pressure

• Projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).

• Treasury futures extending session highs after June FOMC minutes released - Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trade +15.5 at 111-08.5 (110-23.5L / 111-08.5H), resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
• Curves mixed: 2s10s -2.429 at 48.025; 5s30s +0.555 at 95.738.
• USD inching lower, Bbg index BBDXY -0.20 at 1196.44; US stocks firmer but off early session highs: SPX eminis +25.75 at 6297.75

A new survey from YouGov has found that 53% of Americans strongly or somewhat oppose the GOP’s Big Beautiful Bill, with 35% supporting it. YouGov notes: “Opposition to the budget has risen 10 percentage points since we first asked about it in April of this year.”

• YouGov notes: “52% of Americans — including 80% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans — believe the federal budget deficit will increase as a result of Trump's budget; 11% think it will remain the same and 19% think it will decrease
• “Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for four social services asked about: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP … Majorities want funding to be increased for Social Security (61%) and Medicare (56%), and sizable shares do as well for Medicaid (49%) and SNAP (41%)”
• The survey highlights the political challenge for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While the bill's passage is a major win for the Trump administration, it appears to open the door for a Democrat messaging campaign centred on cuts to safety net programmes. 

Figure 1: “Thinking about the following U.S. program, do you believe it should be given more or less funding? (% who say each program should be given...)”

Source: YouGov