US NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Softens

Sep-19 18:42

Henry Hub has continued yesterday’s declines, as production remains elevated and LNG feedgas is down overnight.

  • Oct 25 is trading at $2.930, down 2.24% on the day.
  • Nov 25 is trading at $3.277, down 1.68% on the day.
  • Baker Hughes US Gas: 118 (0) - up 19 rigs, or 19.2% on the year.
  • BNEF estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 107.58 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 107.48 Bcf/d.
  • LNG feedgas averaged 15.9 Bcf/d today, down ~0.4 Bcf/d from yesterday but up slightly week-over-week.
  • Cove Point is expected to enter full maintenance this weekend, sending feedgas to the facility to 0 through mid-October.
  • Latest NOAA forecasts are calling for warmer than normal weather across the US for the next 6 to 10 days.
  • The EU’s 19th sanctions package has been adopted by the EC with a focus on a faster phase out of Russian LNG, banning Russian cargoes by Jan. 1, 2027.
  • European gas storage has risen to 81.09% full on Sep. 17 compared to the previous five-year average of 87.6% full, according to GIE.
  • Asian spot LNG prices remained flat this week on high storage inventories and continued muted demand, Reuters said.
  • Iraq’s attempt to ease its chronic power shortage with gas from Turkmenistan routed through Iran has failed under US pressure, Reuters reports.
  • The LNG Canada project has delayed loading for several scheduled shipments due to a production issues, sources told Bloomberg.
  • Egypt is reducing its LNG imports amid easing demand, traders told Bloomberg.

Historical bullets

USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On Trendline Support

Aug-20 18:30
  • RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
  • RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
  • RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
  • RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12 
  • PRICE: 147.06 @ 16:18 BST Aug 20
  • SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
  • SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
  • SUP 3: 145.47 100-dma
  • SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug Upleg

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bearish threat is present as the pair trades closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger S/T reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal on Aug 1. This would open 144.69, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a bull signal.

US TSYS: Post-July FOMC Minutes React Update: Support Cools

Aug-20 18:15

Slightly hawkish minutes (pre-NFP) sees support in Tsys gradually cooling.

  • Tsy Sep 10Y contract trades at 111-28 (+3.5) vs. 112-00.5 high, 10Y yield rises to 4.2887%.
  • Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
  • Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.100 at 54.510, 5s30s +.806 at 109.048.

US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: 30Y Ultra-Bond Funded Skew Play

Aug-20 18:09
  • -5,000 WNU5 117.5 puts 30 vs. 117-16/0.50%
  • vs. +5,000 WNV5 116/119 put over risk reversal, 10 net vs. 117-08/0.75% at 1355:39ET