NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Slides
May-22 18:23
Henry Hub extended its losses today after EIA data showed an above-average widely expected stock build last week. It was previously drifting amid a dip in LNG export terminal feedgas flows.
- US Natgas JUN 25 down 3.1% at 3.27$/mmbtu
- US Natgas JUL 25 down 2.4% at 3.65$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending May. 16 showed a build of 120 bcf.
- The seasonal five-year average shows a net build of 87 bcf. Stocks built by 78 bcf this time last year.
- Total stocks are up to 2375 bcf. This is 333 bcf below levels seen a year ago and 90 above the previous five-year average of 2285 bcf.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is down 2.64 bcf/d on the day to 66.65 bcf/d, BNEF shows.
- The latest NOAA 6-14 forecast shows above normal temperatures in the Pacific and Mountain regions but below normal in much of South Central, Midwest and East.
- The National Weather Service expects an above-normal hurricane season in 2025 producing 3-5 major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 km/h.
- Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals is down 546 mmcf/d today to 14.46 bcf/d, Bloomberg shows.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated at 106.36 bcf/d: BNEF.
- Two terminals at Petronas’ Bintulu LNG facility in Malaysia are undergoing maintenance causing exports to slow this month.
- Egypt is in talks to buy 40-60 LNG cargoes this year, sources told Reuters
- Bahrain and Russia are discussing a three-year take-or-pay LNG deal for supply into the kingdom for the first time: Energy Intelligence.
- Argentina issued a tender for a project to expand takeaway capacity from Vaca Muerta.
- The global LNG market remains fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties: IGU.
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EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact
Apr-22 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 1: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8580 @ 16:17 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 0.8520 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8477 61.8% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 3: 0.8442 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective - for now. The retracement has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 0.8520, the 20-day EMA. Below this level, support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8442. The area between these two averages represents a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: OATs Underperform, UK Curve Bull Steepens
Apr-22 17:58
European FI had a constructive session in the return from a 4-day holiday Tuesday.
- Shrugging off Monday's US Treasury weakness, curves bull steepened early, continuing from Thursday's pre-holiday, post-ECB price action.
- OATs underperformed, with Bloomberg reporting that President Macron is considering calling a snap legislative election in France as soon as the autumn.
- In other developments, BOE's Greene sounded less hawkish on the rate outlook compared with her previous appearances, helping UK rate cut pricing deepen, while Eurozone flash April consumer confidence printed the weakest since November 2023.
- Yields saw a modest spike in the minutes ahead of the cash close on a Bloomberg report that US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions.
- The UK curve bull steepened sharply, with Germany's bull flattening. Periphery EGB spreads were flat/slightly tighter to Bund.
- Tuesday's calendar highlight is flash April PMIs, while we also get UK public sector net borrowing data and an appearance by BOE's Pill, Bailey and Breeden.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.5bps at 1.661%, 5-Yr is down 3.7bps at 1.982%, 10-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.443%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 2.859%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 9bps at 3.83%, 5-Yr is down 6.4bps at 3.98%, 10-Yr is down 2.1bps at 4.545%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 5.368%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.7bps at 116.6bps / French OAT up 1bps at 77.5bps
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5.7B to Price Tuesday
Apr-22 17:46
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/22 $2B #State Street $700M 3NC2 +73, $300M 3NC2 SOFR+95, $1B 5Y +85
- 04/22 $1.85B #Kinder Morgan $1.1B 5Y +120, $750M 10Y +150
- 04/22 $1.1B #NY Life Global $700M 3Y +60, $400M 3Y SOFR+88
- 04/22 $750M #Brookfield Asset Management 10Y +140
- 04/22 $Benchmark OCP 5Y, +10Y investor calls
- 04/22 $Benchmark Rentokil investor calls
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