NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Sells Off

Jan-21 19:44

Henry Hub has dropped by around 5% on the day despite blizzard conditions hitting the USGC. The sell-off comes as production appears not to have been hampered as much as first feared, with expectations of a swift rebound. Furthermore, weather forecasts point to rising temperatures next week.

  • US Natgas FEB 25 down 4.6% at 3.77$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas MAR 25 down 3.6% at 3.35$/mmbtu
  • President Donald Trump issued an order on Monday for the U.S. to resume processing export permit applications for new LNG projects. This has boosted optimism for more stable supply among Asian LNG importers.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is 136.75bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Reuters reported that US natgas demand could hit a new daily record of 172.2 bcf/d today
  • lower 48 temperatures are forecast to gradually recover back to near normal into next week.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated down to 101.4bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas has fallen to 13.07bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Freeport LNG is to remain offline until power conditions stabilise, according to Bloomberg
  • The quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days was up to 3.54m mt as of Jan. 20.
  • Pilot services for vessels travelling through to Lake Charles, Louisiana, remains halted through at least Jan. 22: Moran
  • US natural gas storage likely saw a slightly above-average build of 240 bcf in the week to Jan. 10: Reuters survey.
  • China’s gas demand is forecast to rise 6.2% y/y to 448.5bcm in 2025: CNPC.
  • European LNG prices have fallen relative to pipeline gas prices due to healthy cargo volumes reaching Europe, Platts said.
  • Argentina’s YPF signed an MoU with Indian energy companies to export up to 10m mtpa of LNG.

Historical bullets

TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'

Dec-20 21:16
  • TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
  • TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
  • TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP

USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective

Dec-20 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
  • PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
  • SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18  
  • SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values 
  • SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

Dec-20 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
  • RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA               
  • RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12  
  • RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
  • SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19 
  • SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
  • SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.