NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Rises
Henry Hub is headed for US close with robust gains on the day. Two-month high LNG feedgas export flows and a likely rise in upcoming cooling demand across the US will be supportive.
- US Natgas JUN 24 up 2.6% at 2.59$/mmbtu
- US Natgas NOV 24 up 1.4% at 3.23$/mmbtu
- US domestic natural gas production was yesterday stronger at 101.3bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
- US terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 13.39bcf/d according to Bloomberg, the highest daily flow since mid-March.
- The latest 6–14-day NOAA forecast shows above normal temperatures expected on the Gulf Coast and in western areas but near or just slightly below normal in parts of the East coast and Midwest.
- Domestic natural gas demand is down today at 64.862bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
- Export flows to Mexico are up slightly today at around 6.768 bcf/d and are slightly above the 20-day moving average of 6.743 bcf/d.
- European gas storage was 69% full on May 26 vs the 5-yr seasonal norm of 56% for this time of year according to GIE data.
- The EU adopted a law on Monday to monitor methane emissions from gas imports from 2030.
- Brunei LNG is working on restarting its onshore compressor plants following an outage on May 20, the company said Tuesday.
- Egyptian fertilizer production has slipped due to constrained natural gas supply for the country at present according to ICIS.
- Eni's Congo LNG project looks to be loading its second ever cargo with the Gaslog Savannah back in location at the west African project according to ICIS vessel tracking.
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USDJPY TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 160.20 High Apr 1990
- RES 3: 159.55 2.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 2: 158.97 2.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 1: 158.44 HIgh Apr 26
- PRICE: 157.66 @ 17:25 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 154.99 Low Apr 26
- SUP 2: 153.56/151.65 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 150.81 Low Apr 5
- SUP 4: 150.27 Low Mar 21
The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and Friday’s impulsive rally reinforces current conditions and the move confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on 158.97 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at 153.56, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.2583 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2541 High Apr 26
- PRICE: 1.2479 @ 17:10 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2583, the 50-day EMA.
EURUSD TECHS: Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.0780 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0726/53 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
- PRICE: 1.0686 @ 16:57 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
- SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.0531 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
- SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23
EURUSD pierced resistance at 1.0726 last week, the 20-day EMA. The recent move higher appears to be a correction that is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for weakness towards 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0531, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery.
