NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Rises
Henry Hub is on track for gains as close nears, with falling temperatures in the coming week and an average-level stock draw last week offsetting strong production figures.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 0.9% at 3.39$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 0.7% at 3.38$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Jan. 31 showed a withdrawal of 174bcf, on par with the seasonal five-year average.
- Total stocks are down to 2,397 bcf and 208bcf below levels seen a year ago and 111bcf below the previous five-year average of 2,508bcf.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is today near normal at 96.9bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- Average Lower 48 temperatures are forecast to fall below normal into next week, but the latest forecast is showing warmer in the southern regions into the second half of February.
- US domestic natural gas production rose to a new record high of 107.95bcf/d yesterday, Bloomberg shows.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas rebounded to 14.96bcf/d today, Bloomberg said.
- The US-China trade war is impacting the former’s gas exporters who may lose their advantage in the growing LNG market, Reuters said.
- US Plaquemines LNG plant loaded six cargoes in January, following its first ever cargo in December 2024, as the plant ramps up output, ICIS vessel tracking data shows.
- Russia’s Gazprom began sending gas to Slovakia via the Turkstream pipeline on February 1, the CEO of SPP said on Thursday.
- Egypt is seeking more spot LNG cargoes, even after recent multi-month deals with Shell and TotalEnergies, Bloomberg reports.
- TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne told Reuters that the biggest exporter of US LNG plans to boost investments in American LNG supply and will consider expanding the export projects it is already invested in.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 110-06+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-08 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 108-03+ @ 18:55 GMT Jan 07
- SUP 1: 108-01+ Intraday low
- SUP 2: 108-00 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 4: 107-04 1.764 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend and the contract is approaching the next objective at 108-00, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 109-08, the 20-day EMA.
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0537 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- PRICE: 1.0354 @ 18:58 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 1.0209 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0166 2.0% 10-dma envelope
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0412, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update
At least $27B corporate bonds have either priced or launched so far today, less than half of Monday's near $60B record. Still waiting for Kexim, SMFG and Daimler Truck NA details.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/07 $6B *European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/07 $5B *ADB 3Y SOFR+31
- 01/07 $3.55B #BPCE $1.25B 6NC5 +142, $1.5B 11NC10 +162, $800M 21NC20 +195
- 01/07 $2B #Santander $1B 5Y +110, $1B 10Y +135
- 01/07 $2B #Dai-Ichi Life PerpNC10 6.2%
- 01/07 $1.6B #Republic of Chile 12Y +105
- 01/07 $1.5B #CIBC 5Y SOFR+71
- 01/07 $1.25B #HPS Corp Lending $750M 3Y +135, $500M +7Y +165
- 01/07 $1B #GA Global Funding $500M 5Y +97, $500M 10Y +127
- 01/07 $1b #Kuwait Finance House (KFH) 5Y SOFR Sukuk +95
- 01/07 $850M #APA Corp $350M 10Y +150, $500M 30Y +185
- 01/07 $600M #Met Tower 3Y +48
- 01/07 $500M #Boston Gas WNG 10Y +115
- 01/07 $500M #Protective Life 7& +85
- 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
- 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
- 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +78, 5.25Y SOFR+105, 7Y +88, 10Y +95
- 01/07 $Benchmark Daimler Truck Fin NA 3Y +65, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +82, 7Y +92, 10Y +102
- Expected Wednesday:
- 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +51
- 01/08 $Benchmark Cncl of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+45a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) 5Y SOFR+45a
