NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Lowest Close Since Feb. 28
Mar-20 18:35
Henry Hub has extended losses today to hit its lowest close since Feb. 28. Milder weather and an earlier than expected flip to net storage injections add pressure.
- US Natgas APR 25 down 6% at 3.99$/mmbtu
- US Natgas MAY 25 down 6% at 4.06$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Mar. 14 showed a build of 9 bcf.
- The seasonal five-year average shows a net draw of 31 bcf. Stocks built by 5 bcf this time last year.
- Total stocks are up to 1707 bcf. This is 624 bcf below levels seen a year ago and 190 below the previous five-year average of 1897 bcf.
- Lower 48 natural gas estimated demand adds significantly 6.98 bcf/d to 81.99 bcf/d on the return of heating demand, BNEF shows.
- NOAA average lower 48 temperatures forecast are averaging around the 30year normal for the balance of the month and first few days of April.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas is up 485 mcf d/d to 15.55 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- US domestic natural gas production also lower and is down 0.43 bcf d/d to 105.9 bcf/d today compared to an average of 107.59 bcf/d so far in March, according to BNEF.
- The U.S. has agreed to a sanction’s waiver on Russian gas for Turkey a Turkish official has said to Bloomberg.
- China is likely to resell more LNG cargoes to take advantage of higher prices while domestic inventories remaining robust, according to Bloomberg sources.
- Shell plans to start producing natural gas at Venezuela's Dragon gas field and export it to Trinidad and Tobago by 2026, a year earlier than initially planned, Reuters said.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
Feb-18 18:30
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 1: 1.2635 High Feb 17
- PRICE: 1.2615 @ 16:08 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 1.2466 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. A recent breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would strengthen current conditions and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Key short-term support is 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.
US DATA: Dallas Fed Survey Finds Strong Increases In Loan Demand
Feb-18 18:24
- The timely Dallas Fed’s banking conditions survey, collected Feb 4-12, noted that “loan volume continued increasing at a rapid pace in February while loan demand accelerated further.”
- Whilst only a snapshot for one region, it's nevertheless of note with some disagreement on the FOMC as to the level of restrictiveness currently exerted by monetary policy.
- The current period loan demand balance of +30 is up from +11 in the late Dec survey for its highest since May 2022, whilst future loan demand only dipped 3pts to a still elevated +16.
- A net share continue to see tighter credit standards, but with a balance of -10.4 (after -12.5 in late Dec), it poked below the -10.5 in Oct for technically its least since Apr 2022.
- The press release notes that “Loan nonperformance rose across all loan types, while growth in general business activity slowed”. However, we note that the current period NPL ratio at +16 is within recent ranges, which included the Jan 2025 high of +25. What’s more, the balance expecting higher NPLs in the future at +14 was up from two particularly low reports at 4-5 but is stil far lower than the +50 balances seen in 2023.
FED: US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
Feb-18 18:02
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.76% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 1.68% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.56% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.03
