NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Loses Ground
Henry Hub has struggled for direction today and is now trading lower. A cooler weather forecast for the west of the US is set against a drop in LNG export terminal feedgas flows.
- US Natgas NOV 24 down 0.4% at 2.3$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 2% at 2.76$/mmbtu
- US lower 48 temperatures are forecast above normal but with colder weather developing in the west: NOAA.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is estimated down at 11.8bcf/d today, BNEF shows
- Cameron LNG feedgas nominations remains below normal while Sabine Pass supply has dropped by around 0.7bcf/d suggesting a train down at each facility.
- LNG on tankers for at least 20 days increased 22% on week to 4.53m mt.
- Global LNG demand fell 1% in the week to Oct. 20 to 7.37m mt, BNEF said.
- The next wave of global LNG supply projects coming online will be from 2027, later than prior forecasts of 2025: Total.
- The IEA forecasts global LNG export capacity rising from 580 bcm/y currently to 850 bcm/y by 2030.
- Higher-than-usual LNG prices indicate concerns of rising demand amid a cold winter: Woodside’s CEO.
- LNG buyers including Japan are calling for more supply flexibility to adapt to power demand, Reuters said.
- GAIL plans to negotiate a new long-term LNG deal to meet rising demand, Bloomberg said.
- Failure to market Russian LNG cargoes from Arctic LNG 2 already in APAC would halt Russia’s LNG expansion, OIES said.
- Russia plans to arrange STS LNG transfers to free up more ice-class tankers, Reuters said.
- Gas buyers in Brazil are inquiring about potential purchases of LNG shipments well into Q1 2025, Bloomberg said.
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Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Clears The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 163.89 High Aug a5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 161.91 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 161.16 High Sep 20
- PRICE: 160.62 @ 19:20 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance at 159.07, the 20-day EMA, has been breached and this signals scope for a stronger recovery, towards 161.91, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 3: 147.12 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 145.57 High Sep 4
- RES 1: 144.49 High Sep 20
- PRICE: 143.92 @ 19:16 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 141.74/139.58 Low Sep 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
USDJPY traded higher Friday and remains above its most recent low. However, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low last week. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 139.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been breached, the next key resistance is 147.12, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8461/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 12
- RES 1: 0.8441 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8385 @ 19:13 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 0.8383/78 Low Jul 17 and a key support / Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this theme. The cross has breached 0.8400, Aug 30 low. A clear break of it confirms a resumption of the bear cycle and also confirms a recent bear flag on the daily chart - a continuation pattern. Sights are on 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 0.8340, the Aug 2 ‘22 low. Resistance to watch is 0.8461, 50-day EMA.
