NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Loses Ground
May-23 18:27
Henry Hub has slumped today despite a smaller than expected US storage injection. A slight fall in LNG feedgas flows is likely putting pressure on the front month.
- US Natgas JUN 24 down 6.5% at 2.66$/mmbtu
- US Natgas NOV 24 down 2.7% at 3.27$/mmbtu
- EIA data for the week to May 17 showed an injection of 78bcf compared to expectations of +85bcf the seasonal normal of +90bcf.
- US storage inventories continue to hold a strong surplus with total stocks at 2,711bcf. The five-year average is 2,105bcf.
- US domestic natural gas production was yesterday estimated up slightly to 100.1bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
- US terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 12.93bcf/d according to Bloomberg with flows to Sabine Pass, Cameron, and Calcasieu Pass below normal.
- Domestic natural gas demand is today at 65.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg. The seasonal normal is around 62bcf/d.
- Power use in Texas is on track to break the record for May for a second time this week on May 24 as air conditioning jumps during a heat wave.
- European LNG prices rose to a five-month high amid tightness in regional supply and boosted competition with other basins for LNG cargoes, Platts said.
- Malaysia’s Bintulu LNG export facility was fully restored on May 19 after the outage due to a power loss incident on May 10, according to Petronas on Thursday.
- LNG demand from the power sector in India has been boosted by the current heatwave and is expected to remain strong in the coming two months, said Petronet LNG CEO Akshay Kumar Singh cited by Bloomberg.
- China’s CNOOC expects domestic natural gas consumption to peak at 700 bcm/y in 2040.
- Azerbaijan’s gas exports rose by 61.5% on the year in Q1 to 4.933 bcm, according to Interfax.
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US: Congressional Preference Stable Despite Swinging Presidential Race
Apr-23 18:25
A new survey from NBC News has found that the generic Congressional ballot - a polling metric which asks voters whether they would prefer an unnamed Republican or Democrat in Congress - has been remarkably stable for over two years, despite preferences shifting more dramatically at the top of the ticket.
- NBC: "Right now, 47% prefer a GOP-controlled Congress compared to 46% who want Democrats. The parties have been locked in that competitive position for years: The GOP number hasn’t moved more than 2 points in either direction in NBC News polling since August 2021, while the Democratic number dipped outside that range just once."
- 538 notes a similarly tight race, with Democrats slightly ahead, on their generic congressional ballot aggregator: Democrats 44.7% Republicans 44.3%.
- Real Clear Politics' tracker shows a dead heat - 45.5% apiece.
Figure 1: "What is your preference for the outcome of the congressional elections?"
Source: NBC News
CANADA: Can-US Yield Differential Holds Further Move Off Historical Lows
Apr-23 18:18
- GoC yields sit just 0-1bp lower on the day, holding onto the further lift in Can-US yield differentials seen after the softer US PMI release.
- The 2Y differential has lifted 3.5bps to -68bps (+10bps since the close after last week’s dovish CAD CPI and a hawkish Powell), whilst the 10Y diff has lifted 2bps to -84bps (also +10bps since post-CPI close).
- BoC-dated OIS puts 15-16bp of cuts priced for the next meeting in June with a first cut fully priced in July, in contrast to Fed Funds only just pricing a first cut with the September meeting.
- CORRA futures show 65bp of cuts through 2024 contracts vs yesterday’s Bloomberg analyst survey with a median 100bp of cuts pencilled in.
- Tomorrow sees Canadian retail sales and the minutes from the BoC Apr 10 decision.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Apartment List Economist On Rent Outlook
Apr-23 18:13
MNI interviews economist at rental listing firm on outlook for shelter inflation -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
