NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Hits Jan. 24 High
Feb-18 19:33
Henry Hub has surged to its highest level since Jan. 24, boosted by freezing weather across large parts of the US and record feedgas flows to US LNG terminals.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 7.5% at 4.01$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 7.1% at 3.98$/mmbtu
- Lower 48 natural gas demand has risen to the highest since Jan. 24 at 122.7bcf/d: Bloomberg.
- Forecasts shifted much colder for the central and eastern parts of the USA for Feb. 28—March 4, according to Maxar, cited by Bloomberg.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas remains just below record levels at 15.43bcf/d today, compared to an average of 14.9bcf/d so far in February: Bloomberg.
- US domestic natgas production is 106.1bcf/d today: BNEF
- Venture Global will begin commercial operations at its Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana on April 15 – three years after it shipped its first LNG cargo.
- Offline associated gas production in North Dakota due to cold snap totals 340 -420 mcf/d.
- The Hochul administration signed off on permits to expand capacity in the 414-mile Iroquois Pipeline that connects St. Lawrence County near the border with Cornwall, Ontario
- Argentina’s Enarsa is set to begin buying LNG in early March ahead of the start of Southern Hemisphere winter, traders told Bloomberg.
- Trinidad & Tobago has unveiled significant exploration targets that could potentially unlock 58.84 tcf (1.67 tcm) of natural gas resources.
- The Platts MOC assessment for the March JKM pricing period (Jan. 16-Feb. 14) saw a significant increase in activity, Platts said.
- Net European gas storage withdrawal rates have held mostly above normal so far in February
- Pakistan plans to review the price of LNG under its 15-year contract with QatarEnergy, Platts said.
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EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Still Bearish
Jan-19 19:02
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0345/54 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 1.0282 @ 19:12 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0345, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
Jan-17 21:00
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$79.0B
US TSYS: Tsy Curves Twist Flatter, Heavy Short End Sales Ahead Inauguration
Jan-17 20:10
- Treasuries look to finish mixed Friday, well off early session highs with heavy short end selling weighing across the strip while curves twisted flatter (2s10s -4.357 at 33.679, 5s30s -2.657 at 43.037).
- Massive -46k Mar'25 2Y futures sale triggered a broad based reversal by midmorning, while morning headlines that incoming President Trump held a call with China President Xi elevated volatility. Descriptions of a positive tone for China/US relations provided a boost for the Chinese Yuan.
- A surprise $10B 5-tranche debt issuance from Bank of America contributed to selling in rates.
- Generally positive data: Industrial production surprisingly jumped 0.9% M/M (cons 0.3) in Dec after an upward revised 0.2% M/M (initial -0.1%). Utilities may have helped with their 2.1% M/M increase (strongest since May) but manufacturing production was also stronger than expected with 0.6% M/M (cons 0.2%) after an upward revised 0.4% M/M (initial 0.2%).
- Building permits were a little higher than expected in December at 1483k (cons 1460k) for little change from 1493k in Nov. Housing starts meanwhile, which are more prone to weather disruption, surprisingly jumped to 1499k (cons 1327k) after 1294k in Nov.
- Reminder, the Federal Reserve enters their policy Blackout at midnight tonight through January 30.
- Corporate earnings pick up in earnest next week, headliners expected to announce next Tuesday include KeyCorp, DR Horton Inc, Charles Schwab, Prologis Inc and 3M Co before the market opens, Fifth Third Bancorp, Netflix Inc, Interactive Brokers, United Airlines, Seagate Technology and Capital One Financial after the market closes.
