US NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Furthers Declines
Dec-31 19:37
Henry Hub front month opened down about 16 cents, with warmer weather forecasts putting downward pressure on the market. However, prices fell further as EIA L48 storage recorded a smaller than expected withdrawal.
- US Natgas FEB 26 down 28 cents at $3.69/MMBtu
- US Natgas MAR 26 down 22 cents at $3.13/MMBtu
- Spot prices haven’t been as low as today’s levels since October when the market transitioned to winter pricing.
- The March-April 2026 spread closed nearly flat today at -$0.02/MMBtu. With gas inventories maintaining an oversupplied position putting downward pressure on the March contract, the widow maker could leave some in the red should a cold winter storm manifest in the coming weeks and draw storage quickly as seen last winter.
- EIA reported a 38 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 26th, which was smaller than the WSJ expectation of 46 Bcf. L48 storage now stands at 3,375 Bcf, which is 58 Bcf above the 5-year average for the same week. Storage had fallen below the 5-year average the prior week, but storage is back above normal on the heals of warmer weather.
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USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through Support At The 50-Day EMA
Dec-01 19:30
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 155.29 @ 16:44 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 154.67 Low Dec 01
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Nov 17
- SUP 3: 153.06 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29
The trend set-up in USDJPY is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A deeper retracement is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at 155.26, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. The clear break of it exposes the 50-day EMA at 153.06. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would open 158.00.
PRECIOUS METALS: Silver Extends Surge, Gold Rally Stalls amid Dollar Turnaround
Dec-01 19:27
- Expectations firming up for a likely Fed cut next week have helped gold to reaffirm its bullish overall theme. The strong bounce suggests the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. Note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of the corrective cycle.
- Further USD weakness early Monday allowed the yellow metal to extend gains, reaching as high as $4,264/oz, a fresh recovery high. Intra-day momentum stalled amid the broader recovery for the US dollar, and spot prices have since been consolidating close to unchanged levels on the session. Overall, sights remain on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
- Meanwhile, spot silver extended its impressive surge to record highs, gaining a further 3.3% as we approach the APAC crossover. It’s mainly projection levels that are used to generate targets for the move at this point, and the next notable level is $59.563, a Fibonacci projection.
- “Shortages in the global market as a result of the recent squeeze in London are still being felt,” said one commodity strategist from ANZ. “With gold taking a breather, it appears investors have turned their attention to silver.”
- BNP noted that investors will be watching how expensive silver is getting relative to gold. “Key to watch is the fact that the gold-silver ratio has got down close to 70.”
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Vehicle Sales, Fed VC Bowman Testimony House
Dec-01 19:17
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/02 Wards Total Vehicle Sales (15.32M, 15.43M)
- 12/02 1000 Fed VC Bowman House Committee testimony on oversight of financial regulators (text, Q&A)
- 12/02 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
