NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls

May-08 18:36

Henry Hub front month has lost ground today,  driven by an above average build in US inventories.

  • US Natgas JUN 25 down 0.7% at 3.6$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JUL 25 down 0.3% at 3.94$/mmbtu
  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending May 2 showed a build of 104 bcf.
  • The seasonal five-year average shows a net build of 79 bcf. Stocks  built by 81 bcf this time last year.
  • Total stocks are  up to 2145 bcf. This is 412 bcf  below levels seen a year ago and 30  above the previous five-year average of 2115 bcf.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is starting today up 940 mmcf/d to 65.5 bcf/d, BNEF said. This is the highest demand since May 1.
  • NOAA average lower 48 for the 6-10 day remains warmer than normal.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is up 949 mmcf/d to 15.3 bcf/d, BNEF said.
  • US domestic natural gas production is down 0.47 bcf/d to 104.6 bcf/d, according to BNEF.
  • According to JPMorgan in a valuation analysis published on April 29 the cal25 strip is valued at $3.67 mmbtu and the cal26 strip is valued at $4.14 on average.
  • Current market prices are showing cal25 averaging $3.92 mmbtu and cal26 averaging $4.363 mmbtu.
  • US and Russian officials have held discussions about the US helping to revive Russian gas sales to Europe, eight sources told Reuters.
  • Woodside Energy has terminated its LNG sale and purchase agreements with Commonwealth LNG due to the latter's failure to meet key milestones, Platts said.

Historical bullets

USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

Apr-08 18:30
  • RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
  • RES 3: 150.33/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
  • RES 2: 149.00 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20 
  • PRICE: 146.99 @ 16:30 BST Apr 8
  • SUP 1: 144.56 Low Apr 4  
  • SUP 2: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
  • SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing

USDJPY maintains a bearish tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and the latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.00, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 150.33.

US TSY FUTURES: Curve Steepening Hits New Highs

Apr-08 18:28

Short end support gains traction in late trade, heavy volumes as curves twist steeper: 2s10s +10.26 at 51.71 -- steepest level since mid-February 2022:

2s10s 04082025

US TSY OPTIONS: May'25 10Y Call Spread Buying

Apr-08 18:12
  • +16,250 TYK5 113/114 call spds 11 vs. 111-18/0.11%