NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Climbs
Henry Hub is has found support to approach the intraday high’s of yesterday. A pickup in LNG feedgas flows, coupled with a fall in US gas rigs, have been supportive today.
- US Natgas NOV 24 up 0.8% at 2.54$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 1.1% at 2.87$/mmbtu
- Baker Hughes gas rig count: 101 (2) – down 16 rigs, or 13.7% on the year.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is down to 73.5 bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is estimated up to 12.7bcf/d today, BNEF shows, but well below a peak of nearly 14bcf/d on Oct. 17.
- US domestic natural gas production rose to 102.7bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 102.6bcf/d over the previous week.
- Regulators gave Exxon Mobil and Qatar Energy LNG joint venture a 3-year extension to finish building their Golden Pass LNG plant.
- The current U.S. Administration has not provided consistent policy for the energy industry, highlighted by the LNG permitting pause, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said.
- A rig is due to arrive at Egypt's Zohr gas field in December to restart drilling work, with the aim of producing 220 million cubic feet per day from two wells, Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi said on Wednesday.
- Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 plant has halted commercia gas-liquefaction amid western sanctions, according to two people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported.
- LNG Alliance signed a preliminary head of agreement to supply LNG to Sahara Group from its proposed LNG project in Mexico.
- The final two FSRUs set to be deployed in Germany are expected to begin operations before the start of the winter, according to Platts citing Deutsche Energy Terminal (DET).
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COMMODITIES: Crude Plunges on Libya Deal, Gold Trades Near Fresh Record High
- WTI has slipped further today as Libyan tensions appear to ease, paving the way towards a supply return.
- WTI Nov 24 is down by 2.5% at $69.8/bbl.
- For WTI futures, the next resistance to watch is $72.25, 50-day EMA. It has been pierced and a clear break would undermine a bear theme.
- A further reversal lower would refocus attention on $64.61, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger.
- Spot gold rose to a fresh record high of $2,670 earlier in Wednesday’s session before paring the move to trade marginally higher on the day.
- The yellow metal is currently up by 0.2% at $2,662/oz.
- Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2675.5 next, a Fibonacci projection.
- Meanwhile, after yesterday’s 4% rally on the back of China stimulus news, copper has edged down by 0.1% to $449/lb today.
The recent gain in copper undermines an earlier bearish theme and instead highlights a stronger bull cycle. $453.83, the 50.0% retracement of the May 20 - Aug 7 bear leg, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would expose $464.60, the Jul 5 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 3: 146.72 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 145.57 High Sep 4
- RES 1: 144.68 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 144.41 @ 17:00 BST Sep 25
- SUP 1: 141.74/139.58 Low Sep 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
USDJPY traded higher last week and remains above its most recent low. However, short-term gains appear corrective. Trend signals remain bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Sep 16. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 139.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been breached, the next key resistance is 146.72, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8448/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 12
- RES 2: 0.8416 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8381/8400 Low Jul 17 / Low Aug 30
- PRICE: 0.8355 @ 16:59 BST Sep 25
- SUP 1: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 proj of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s move lower plus Monday’s bearish start to the week, reinforces this theme. The cross recently breached 0.8400, the Aug 30 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle. Furthermore, 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support, has been cleared, strengthening the bearish theme. Sights are on 0.8311 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8400, the Aug 30 low.
