US NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary

Nov-28 19:13

Henry Hub front month reached a three-year high on cold weather forecasts and record-setting feedgas demand

  • Jan 26 is trading at $4.831, up 5.99% on the day.
  • Feb 26 is trading at $4.401, up 5.06% on the day.
  • Intraday front month volume on NYMEX is about 104,000 lots.
  • Forecasts shifted to show below-normal temperatures over the next several regions in the country’s biggest heating demand centers.
  • Feedgas demand hit 18.89 bcf/d, according to MNI data, a new record.
  • Kpler data show LMG exports up 40% this year compared to this time last year.
  • BNEF estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 113.28 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 113.95 Bcf/d.
  • U.S. dry gas consumption is estimated at 98.60 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 96.00 Bcf/d.
  • Pipeline exports to Mexico were estimated at 6.57 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 6.62 Bcf/d.

Historical bullets

FED: Powell Asked About Current Rates and Equity Markets

Oct-29 19:12
  • Asked about current rates: "I wouldn't say that they're accommodative right now, but they're meaningfully less tight than they were, and that should help so that at least the labor market doesn't get worse".
  • Asked if equity markets are overvalued: "we don't look at any one asset price and say hey, that's wrong, you know - it's not our job...You know, we don't set asset prices - markets do that."

FED: Powell Hints at Committee Divisions, Details to Follow in Minutes

Oct-29 19:08
  • Powell teasing some spicy meeting minutes in 3 weeks' time: "There's a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle, something like that. That's what it is. It's just what you think it would be. And again, you've seen it in the September projections. You've seen this in the public remarks of FOMC participants. And now I'm telling you that's what you can expect that in the minutes."

FED: Powell Questioned Again on Dec Meeting Decision

Oct-29 19:05
  • Powell asked again about the December meeting decision - he says that the perspective of some FOMC participants is that "we've now moved 150 basis points and that we're down into the range, between three and four, where most estimates of many estimates of the neutral rate live. But I think there are people on the committee who have higher estimates of the neutral rate, and that's, you know, you can argue these positions... I think for for some part of the committee, it's time to maybe take a step back and and see whether there really are downside risks to the labor market, or see whether, in fact, the stronger growth that we're seeing is, is real. Ordinarily, the labor market is a better indicator of the momentum of the economy than the spending data. In this case that gives a more downbeat read. So people just have, you know, we've cut 50 more basis points in the last two meetings. And there's a sense from some, let's pause here, kind of thing, and a sense from others wanting to go ahead. But that's why I say differing views, strongly different views."