NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Loses Ground
Dec-02 19:28
Henry Hub is on track for its lowest close since Nov. 22, as strong domestic production offsets the current cold snap and robust LNG demand.
- US Natgas JAN 25 down 5.1% at 3.19$/mmbtu
- US Natgas JUN 25 down 2.3% at 3.08$/mmbtu
- Lower 48 natural gas demand has surged up above the previous five-year range to the highest since January at 106.75bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg driven by cold temperatures.
- US heating demand for the week ending Dec. 7 is forecast to be 13 heating degree days (HDD) above the long-term normal, according to Bloomberg, citing the NOAA.
- US domestic natural gas production rose to the second highest since February at 105.2cf/d over the weekend, according to Bloomberg.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is near the highest since January at 14.16bcf/d today, BNEF shows supported by overseas demand.
- Egypt and Jordan have signed a deal to allow Jordan to use an Egyptian FSRU until 2026 its energy ministry said on Monday.
- JKM is seen remaining stable in the week to Dec. 6 due to subdued demand and adequate January storage levels, Platts said.
- Australia’s Woodside Energy said on Monday it had resumed production at the Pluto LNG facility.
- Brunei LNG has shipped out two cargoes following the operational upset on Nov. 20 according to Kpler.
- QatarEnergy has signed a long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement with Shell for delivery to China.
- China has built and connected the Power of Siberia pipeline additions allowing it to reach its full capacity of 38 bcm in 2025 - roughly 9% of China's consumption this year.
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US: Biden Remarks In Philadelphia Underway Shortly
Nov-01 20:31
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver remarks in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on his administration's "historic support for unions". LIVESTREAM
- The speech is a rare forray for Biden into presidential election swing states, with the Harris campaign reportedly preferring to keep distance from the President. A speech in critcal Pennylvania, and another event planned for Saturday, may suggest that Harris has calculated that Biden's appearance may help shore up some blue-collar votes in a state the president retains high levels of support.
- However, considering a recent gaff, Biden's comments will be closely scrutinsed by the press and Republican operatives for any remarks that can be used in last-minute campaign material.
- CNN noted: "More broadly, a Biden comment that will be portrayed by pro-Trump media as contempt for the ex-president’s supporters came at exactly the moment that Harris is trying to come across as a unifying figure to win over Republicans who are disaffected with Trump’s extremism but are not yet ready to take the leap to vote for a Democrat."
- The Washington Examiner notes, in an article summarising the various problems Biden has caused Harris: "The president, now entering his final few months in the White House, may have more trouble with the errant comments. The Associated Press reported Thursday that the White House press office altered the stenographed transcript in a bid to clean up what Biden had said."
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Dec'24 5Y Call Spread
Nov-01 19:59
- 28,591 FVZ4 107.5/109.5 call spreads, 22 vs. 106-30.5/0.30% at 1551:32ET
US TSYS: Late Treasury Roundup: Ignoring Jobs Data, Yields Climb Ahead Election
Nov-01 19:34
- Curves maintained steeper profiles late Friday, despite Treasury futures gradually reversing this morning's post NFP-tied bid. Fast two-way trade reported as Treasury futures briefly extended lows than rebound gap higher after the latest employment report shows much lower than expected jobs gain and down revision to prior, unemployment rate in-line with expectations.
- Support evaporated after higher than expected S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and ISM prices paid data. After the bell, the Dec'24 10Y contract trades through round number support to 109-31.5 (-15.5) while curves hold steeper levels -- reflecting improved rate cut expectations on the day: 2s10s +4.592 at 15.594 (vs. 7.660 low), 5s30s +3.035 at 34.538 (vs. 28.331 low). After
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 held firmer vs. late Thursday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -24.6bp ( -23.5bp), Dec'24 -45.9bp (-42.8bp), Jan'25 -59.2bp (-58.1bp), Mar'25 -74.8bp (-75.0bp).
- Greenback initially weakened across the board after the lower-than-expected headline, but the murky details around industrial action and hurricanes likely containing the market fallout here. The USD reversed course throughout the session, terminal rates in the US stronger climbs on the week which contributed to the strong dollar reversal on Friday, with the USD index looking to close the week broadly unchanged around 104.25.
- Looking ahead, the US Presidential Election on Tuesday and the FOMC decision unusually on a Thursday are two major risk events in an otherwise light US calendar.
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