NATGAS: Funds Raise TTF Net Long Position to Highest Since July 2021
Aug-14 10:31
GAS POSITIONING - Investment fund net long positioning in ICE TTF futures surged again to the highest since July 2021, according to the commitment of traders data for the week to Aug 9. Upside pressure has primarily been driven by rising Ukraine transit supply risks with conflict in the region surrounding the Sudzha connection point.
- Investment Firm net position fell by 21.45m to -187.32m
- Investment Funds net position increased by 42.39m to +234.38m
- Commercial Undertaking net position fell by 20.63m to -44.83m
Source: Bloomberg
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Two And A Half Fed Cuts In 2024, Pre-Blackout Powell In Focus
Jul-15 10:31
- Fed Funds implied rates hold Friday’s late decline as subdued core PCE implications from the CPI and PPI reports were digested (analysts have narrowed in on ~0.165% M/M for June after a particularly soft 0.08% in May).
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 25bp Sep, 41bp Nov, 64bp Dec and 82bp Jan.
- Powell headlines today’s docket in a Q&A-only interview by David Rubenstein at 1230ET. His last appearance before the FOMC media blackout provides an opportunity to comment on the potential policy impact from another soft CPI report.
- Without giving much away, Powell is likely to offer cautious optimism, with the key to cutting rates now being further evidence that inflation is not just headed to 2% but as per the existing guidance, “sustainably”. For now, it looks very likely that July’s meeting will be used to open the door to a September cut should the July and August inflation data paint a similar picture.
- SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) follows late on at 1635ET in a Q&A on technology’s impact on mon pol.
US TSY FUTURES: OI Points To Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover Following PPI
Jul-15 10:25
Friday’s shallow rally in Tsy futures and OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover, with those impulses generally offsetting in net curve DV01 terms.
| 12-Jul-24 | 11-Jul-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) | |
| TU | 4,328,323 | 4,303,542 | +24,781 | +942,521 |
| FV | 6,423,942 | 6,406,039 | +17,903 | +759,109 |
| TY | 4,552,965 | 4,586,211 | -33,246 | -2,161,078 |
| UXY | 2,092,078 | 2,078,339 | +13,739 | +1,236,902 |
| US | 1,671,719 | 1,673,488 | -1,769 | -233,921 |
| WN | 1,677,127 | 1,679,318 | -2,191 | -446,009 |
| Total | +19,217 | +97,524 |
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar
Jul-15 10:17
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jul-15 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-6.0, -8.0)
- Jul-15 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W Bill, $70B 26W Bill auctions
- Jul-15 1230 Fed Chair Powell interview w/ David Rubenstein (text TBA, Q&A)
- Jul-15 1635 SF Fed Daly moderated discussion on economy, mon-pol (no text, Q&A)
