WTI TECHS: (N5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $61.49/64.32 - 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• PRICE: $58.20 @ 07:18 BST May 6 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is $64.32, the 50-day EMA.

(Updated) Germany has announced a mandate for a syndicated tap of the 30-year Bund while Austria, Germany, France, Spain and Ireland all look to hold auctions this week and Italy has announced it will hold a buyback. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E31.1bln, down from E35.0bln last week.

For the full document with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, click here

• Germany has announced that it will hold a syndicated tap of the 30-year 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012) in the “near future”. MNI expects a transaction today with a size of E4-6bln.
  • Next week’s auction has been altered with the 1.25% Aug-48 Bund on offer for E1.5bln (instead of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund) alongside another issue.
• This morning, Austria will look to hold an RAGB auction. On offer will be a combined E1.725bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25) alongside the 20-year 3.15% Jun-44 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A0VRQ6)
• Also today, Germany will come to the market with E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042) on offer.
• Tomorrow, France will look to hold a LT OAT auction (rather than on the usual Thursday due to the VE day public holiday). On offer will be a combined E10-12bln of the on-the-run 10-year .20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5), the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62) and the 4.50% Apr-41 OAT (ISIN: FR0010773192).
• Also tomorrow, Italy will hold a buyback via Banca d’Italia for up to E5.0bln with the following BTPs eligible: the 0.50% Feb-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005419848), the 4.50% Mar-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0004644735), the 0% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005437147), the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005170839) and the 0% Aug-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005454241).

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3387.1/3500.1 - Intraday high / High Apr 22 and bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3366.2 @ 07:23 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $3252.1/3202.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA 

Gold has recovered from its recent lows and this suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.